Abstract: According to recent assessments, the United States has considerably more recoverable natural gas in shale formations than was previously thought. Such a development raises expectations that U.S. energy consumption will shift toward natural gas. To examine how the apparent abundance of natural gas and projected growth of its use might affect natural gas prices, production, and consumption, we use NEMS-RFF to model a number of scenarios—reflecting different perspectives on natural gas availability, the availability of competing resources, demand for natural gas, and climate policy—through 2030. We find that more abundant shale gas resources create an environment in which natural gas prices are likely to remain attractive to consumers—even as policy advances additional uses of natural gas to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and bolster energy security.

Abstract: Because conventional command-and-control environmental regulation often performs poorly in developing countries, policymakers are increasingly experimenting with alternatives, including state-sponsored voluntary regulatory programs that provide incentives, but not mandates, for pollution control. Although the literature on this trend is quite thin, research in industrialized countries suggests that voluntary programs are sometimes ineffective because they mainly attract relatively clean participants seeking to free-ride on unrelated pollution control investments. We use plant-level data on more than 60,000 facilities to identify the drivers of participation in the Clean Industry Program, Mexico’s flagship voluntary regulatory initiative. Our results suggest that the threat of regulatory sanctions drives participation in the program. Therefore, the program does appear to attract relatively dirty firms. We also find that plants that sold their goods in overseas markets and to government suppliers, used imported inputs, were relatively large, and were in certain sectors and states were more likely to participate in the program, all other things equal.

Abstract: This paper presents an empirical study of schooling attendance and collection of environmental resources using cross-sectional data from the Kiambu District of Kenya. Because the decision to collect environmental resources and attend school is jointly determined, we used a bivariate probit method to model the decisions. In addition, we corrected for the possible endogeneity of resource collection work in the school attendance equation by using instrumental variable probit estimation. One of the key findings is that being involved in resource collection reduces the likelihood of a child attending school. The result supports the hypothesis of a negative relationship between children working to collect resources and the likelihood that they will attend school. The results further show that a child’s mother’s involvement in resource collection increases school attendance. In addition, there is no school attendance discrimination against girls, but they are overburdened by resource collection work. The study recommends immediate policy interventions focusing on the provision of public amenities, such as water and fuelwood.

Abstract: Soil degradation is one of the most serious environmental problems in the highlands of Ethiopia. The prevalence of traditional agricultural land use and the absence of appropriate resource management often result in the degradation of natural soil fertility. This has important implications for soil productivity, household food security, and poverty. Given the extreme vulnerability of farmers in this area, we hypothesized that farmers’ risk preferences might affect the sustainability of resource use. This study presents experimental results on the willingness of farmers to take risks and relates the subjective risk preferences to actual soil conservation decisions. The study looks at a random sample of 143 households with 597 farming plots. We found that a high degree of risk aversion significantly decreases the probability of adopting soil conservation. This implies that reducing farmers’ risk exposure could promote soil conservation practices and thus more sustainable natural resource management. This might be achieved by improving tenure security, promoting access to extension services and education, and developing off-farm activities that generate income.

Abstract: This paper investigates the opportunities for reducing the pressure of urban centers on rural forest areas, using a dataset of 350 urban households in Tigrai in northern Ethiopia. We applied an almost-ideal demand system to fuels. Because the same fuels were not always used by households, the analysis started with a probit model of fuel use. The inverse Mills ratios derived from it were inserted into the estimation of the fuel demand system to obtain a full set of price and income elasticities. The results suggest that reducing the pressure of urban centers on local forests cannot be seen in isolation from broader development policies aimed at raising the level of education and income of the population. Higher income also stimulates the demand for fuel.

Abstract: Devoting time to off-farm activities, while complementing agricultural incomes, may be constrained by labor availability and financial capacity. This paper assesses the importance of rainfall patterns, which condition the availability of agricultural labor, and financial constraints on off-farm employment decisions. Using panel data from Ethiopia, which include experimental rate-of-time preference measures, we found that these and rainfall are significant determinants off-farm employment. Rural development policies should take into account the financial capacity of households and the role of offfarm opportunities as safety nets in the face of weather uncertainty.

Abstract: Dependency of urban Ethiopian households on rural areas for about 85 percent of their fuel needs is a significant cause of deforestation and forest degradation, resulting in growing fuel scarcity and higher firewood prices. One response to reducing the pressure on rural lands is for urban households to switch fuel sources (from fuelwood to electricity, for example) to slow deforestation and forest degradation and reduce indoor air pollution. However, such an energy transition is conditioned on the adoption of appropriate cooking appliances or stove technologies by the majority of users. This paper investigates urban energy transition and technology adoption conditions using a dataset of 350 urban households in Tigrai, in northern Ethiopia. Results suggest that the transition to electricity is affected by households adopting the electric mitad cooking appliance, which in turn is influenced by the level of education and income, among other things.

Abstract: We investigate the effects of “Cash for Clunkers”, a $3 billion economic stimulus program, on new vehicle sales, employment, gasoline consumption, and the environment. Using Canada as the control group in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that the program increased new vehicle sales by about 0.39 million during July and August of 2009, while the net increase reduced to 0.25 million from June to December. The difference suggests that, as intended, the program significantly shifted sales to July and August from other months. Nevertheless, the program would result in only 8.58 to 28.28 million tons of CO2 emission reductions, implying a cost per ton ranging from $91 to $301 even after accounting for the benefit of the program in reducing criteria pollutants. In addition, the program is estimated to have created 3,676 job-years in the auto assembly and parts industries from June to December of 2009. That effect decreased to 2,050 by May 2010.

Abstract: Recent policy debates suggest that geologic carbon sequestration (GS) will play an important role in any carbon-constrained future. As GS evolves from its current role as an end-stage process within enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations to a long-term, dedicated emissions mitigation option, regulations must simultaneously evolve to address the risks of potential carbon dioxide (CO2) migration underground and leakage to the surface. Because CO2 injection practices are currently based on petroleum industry extraction techniques, risk assessment and regulatory frameworks are also derived from these experiences, and EOR serves as a critical point of departure for GS. In this paper, we develop a basic engineering–economic model of four strategies associated with key deployment pathways in the portfolio of EOR and GS projects: (a) an indifferent strategy, where EOR is the priority without any consideration for long-term sequestration, (b) an afterthought strategy, where EOR is the primary goal, and a site is later secured for sequestration, (c) a planned strategy, where oil extraction and CO2 injection are co-optimized from the start, and (d) a dedicated strategy, where GS is the sole priority. We evaluate these strategies based on scenarios of oil and CO2 prices; leakage estimates; and transportation, injection, and monitoring costs from the literature and practice. Major results reveal that the afterthought strategy is the dominant strategy (i.e. the strategy with the greatest revenues) under a range of scenarios. This finding suggests that GS regulatory design needs to anticipate the use of the potentially leakiest or “worst” sites first.

Abstract: Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil prices are best understood as endogenous. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and early 1980s and the 2000s reflect differing mixes of shifts in oil supply and demand, and differing sources of oil price shocks have differing effects on economic activity. We also find that U.S. output fluctuations owe mostly to domestic shocks, with productivity shocks contributing to weakness in the 1970s and 1980s and strength in the 2000s.

Abstract: Today a new generation of food safety policy is emerging in OECD countries and international public health forums. The United States has actively contributed to the thinking and scientific research underlying this new generation of policy. A consensus has emerged among nations about the basic components of an effective food safety system based on modern science and management practices. In shorthand, the vision is of a farm-to-fork, risk-based, scientifically supported safety control system. This system is built on several decades of experience with risk management in national governments, particularly in U.S. environmental and occupational and consumer safety policy. This paper describes the elements of a risk-based, farm-to-fork food safety system as it is emerging in OECD countries guided by discussions through Codex Alimentarius and traces its roots in the development of risk management policy in the United States.

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of developments in food safety policy in major industrial countries and of economic analysis of this policy. It describes the elements of a risk-based, farm-to-fork food safety system as it is emerging in OECD countries guided by discussions through Codex Alimentarius and traces its roots in the development of risk management policy in the United States. The goal of this paper is to provide a nontechnical introduction to food safety policy and economics for students, economists and others interested in food safety policy, but new to the field.

Abstract: Common intuition and experimental psychology suggest that the ability to self-regulate ("willpower") is a depletable resource. We investigate the behavior of an agent with limited willpower who optimally consumes over time an endowment of a tempting and storable consumption good or "cake". We assume that restraining consumption below the most tempting feasible rate requires willpower. Any willpower not used to regulate consumption may be valuable in controlling other urges. Willpower thus links otherwise unrelated behaviors requiring self-control. An agent with limited willpower will display apparent domain-speci?c time preference. Such an agent will almost never perfectly smooth his consumption, even when it is feasible to do so. Whether the agent relaxes control of his consumption over time (as experimental psychologists predict) or tightens it (as most behavioral theories predict) depends in our model on the net e¤ect of two analytically distinct and opposing forces.

Abstract: We describe three essential elements of an effective post-2012 international global climate policy architecture: a means to ensure that key industrialized and developing nations are involved in differentiated but meaningful ways; an emphasis on an extended time path of targets; and inclusion of flexible market-based policy instruments to keep costs down and facilitate international equity. This architecture is consistent with fundamental aspects of the science, economics, and politics of global climate change; addresses specific shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol; and builds upon the foundation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Abstract: We conducted a field experiment in a protected area to explore the effects of conformity to a social reference versus a comparable, but imposed, suggested donation. As observed before, we see visitors conforming to the changing social reference. On the other hand, the treatment in which we suggested a donation resulted in lower shares of visitors donating, compared to the social reference treatment, and lower conditional donations even compared to the control. We concluded that visitors look at their peers as a reference to conform to, but partially reject being confronted with an imposed suggestion on how to behave.

Abstract: This paper explores whether any investment products or strategies in South Africa take environmental sustainability into account. By looking at how environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria are used in investment decision making, we found that most socially-responsible investment products and responsible investment strategies largely focus on infrastructure, development, and black economic empowerment. Environmental criteria do not yet receive comparable attention from South African asset managers and owners. Mainstreaming responsible investment principles will need to come from either an increase in demand for such practices by asset owners or from company positions on ESG issues.

Abstract: Unique survey data from a contingent valuation study conducted in three different countries (China, Sweden, and the United States) were used to investigate the ordinary citizen’s willingness to pay (WTP) for reducing CO2 emissions. We found that a large majority of the respondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humans are responsible for the increase. A smaller share of Americans, however, believes these statements, when compared to the Chinese and Swedes. A larger share of Americans is also pessimistic and believes that nothing can be done to stop climate change. We also found that Sweden has the highest WTP for reductions of CO2, while China has the lowest. Thus, even though the Swedes and Chinese are similar to each other in their attitudes toward climate change, they differ considerably in their WTP. When WTP is measured as a share of household income, the willingness to pay is the same for Americans and Chinese, while again higher for the Swedes.

Abstract: Nearly every state in the United States has developed one or more voluntary cleanup programs (VCPs) to support an alternative approach to cleanup of contaminated sites. Thousands of sites have entered into these programs. Yet, despite the ubiquity of VCPs and the number of enrolled properties, we know little about the factors that influence voluntary action at these sites. This paper reports results from interviews of state officials involved in VCPs in all states, and from a survey of VCP participants in several states. It has two objectives. First, at an application level, the interview and survey results can be used to help improve policy and practice in voluntary cleanup programs. Second, the paper furnishes a unique study to the general literature on environmental voluntary behavior, contributing an empirical, survey-based study of volunteers engaged in cleanup.

Abstract: This paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced adjustments on the performance of the Tanzanian economy, using a countrywide CGE (computable general equilibrium) model. The general equilibrium framework enables comparison of the effects of climate change to the overall growth of the economy because responsiveness to shocks is likely to depend on the macroeconomic structure of the economy. Effect of overall climate change on agricultural productivity is projected to be relatively limited until approximately 2030 and become worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, despite the projected reduction in agricultural productivity, the negative impacts can potentially be quite limited. This is because the time scales involved and the low starting point of the economy leave ample time for factor substitutability (i.e., replacing reduced land productivity with increased use of capital and labor) and increased overall productivity. This indicates that policies that give farmers opportunity to invest in autonomous climate adaptation, as well as policies that improve the overall performance of the economy, can be as important for reducing the impacts of climate change in the economy as direct government policies for climate adaptation. The study results can inform policymakers when choosing between direct climate-change adaptation policies or measures aimed at strengthening the fundamentals of the economy, as ways of insulating against external shocks.

Abstract: Wetlands are commonly understood to have the capacity to reduce the loads of excess nutrients, pathogens, sediments, and other contaminants generated by various activities in their catchment areas. However, quantifying these “services” is difficult and most research in this field has concentrated on artificial treatment wetlands. Understanding the value of their water treatment characteristics, as well as the other services they provide, is increasingly recognized as essential to achieving a balance between conservation and activities that degrade or replace wetlands. The aim of this study is to estimate the water treatment capacity of wetlands on a landscape scale in the South Western Cape of South Africa and estimate the economic value of the service performed. We collected samples at the outflow points of 100 subcatchment areas and measured the loads of nitrogen, dissolved phosphorus, and suspended solids, which were analyzed with respect to detailed spatial data on land cover and wetlands area. Wetlands play a significant role in the reduction of nitrates, nitrites, and ammonium, but not dissolved phosphorus or suspended solids. Estimated removal rates range from 307 to 9,505 kg N per ha^-1 year^-1, with an average of 1,594 +/- 1,375 kg N per ha^-1 year^-1. Data from a number of water treatment works suggest that the cost of removal of ammonium nitrogen is in the order of ZAR 26 per kilogram. Applied to the wetlands in the study area—assuming wetlands do play a role in total phosphorus removal—this suggests that the average value of the water treatment service provided by wetlands in the study area is about ZAR 14,350 +/- 12,385 ha^-1 year^-1. These values are high enough to compete with the alternative land uses that threaten their existence. The results suggest that wetlands should be given considerably more attention in land-use planning and regulation.