Expert Judgment Workshop: Promises and Pitfalls Agenda
March 13 Agenda
Expert Judgment: Promises and Pitfalls
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Welcome and Introduction
Phil Sharp, President, Resources for the Future
web bio
Kate Probst, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
web bio
Keynote Address
George Gray Assistant Administrator, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA
Taking Uncertainty Seriously
Why Quantify Uncertainty?
M. Granger Morgan Head and Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
Roger Cooke
web bio Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow in Risk Analysis, Resources for the Future Expert Judgment: Conceptions, Misconceptions and Fallacies
Expert Judgment: Recent Applications
William Aspinall
web bio Aspinall & Associates
Expert judgment elicitation and decision-making: some real world applications
M. Granger Morgan
Head and Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
Climate Change
Expert Judgment for PM2.5
John Evans Senior Lecturer on Environmental Science, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis
Harvard Kuwait Project
Katherine D. Walker
web bio Senior Consultant, Industrial Economics, Inc. U.S. EPA PM Expert Judgment Project
Round Table on Practical Issues
- When is use of expert judgment warranted?
- What is a typical budget?
- How do you select experts? How many?
- Do you pay experts?
- What is your policy regarding expert identities?
- Do you use group or individual assessments?
- Do you use experts for preference rankings?
Challenges for Policymakers and Practitioners: Uncertainty and the Regulatory Process
Bob Hetes, Senior Advisor for Regulatory Support, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA
web bio
Alan Krupnick
Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
web bio
Are Decisionmakers at Home on the Range? Communicating Uncertainties in Regulatory Impact Analyses
