Expert Judgment Workshop March 14 Agenda

Date

March 13, 2006 to March 14, 2006

Event Series

Conference

Expert Judgment Policy Symposium and Technical Workshop

EXPERT JUDGMENT: PROMISES AND PITFALLS

March 14 Agenda

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Roger Cooke

Overview of expert judgment methods(RCooke2ndDay.ppt, 96KB)

Technical Workshop

Mock-up elicitation exercise
Participants undergo a stylized elicitation in one of two areas: Air Quality or SARS
Feedback from initial training followed by implementation of elicitation procedure
Analysis of elicitation results
Paired comparison stakeholder preference exercise
Plenary session: preferences for policy options regarding fossil fuels.
Analysis of result
Wrap-up panel and discussion

What makes a good question?
How do you sit down with an expert and elicit these uncertainty distributions?
On what are the judgments based? How do we capture that?
How do you know when your expert is "done" with estimating a particular quantile? What is the elicitor's role in trying to determine that? What are different approaches you might take?
What do you do if you think your expert is gaming or being "strategic" in some way?

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