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Expert Judgment Policy Symposium and Technical Workshop
EXPERT JUDGMENT: PROMISES AND PITFALLS
March 14 Agenda
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Roger Cooke
Technical Workshop
- Mock-up elicitation exercise
Participants undergo a stylized elicitation in one of two areas: Air Quality or SARS
- Feedback from initial training followed by implementation of elicitation procedure
- Analysis of elicitation results
- Paired comparison stakeholder preference exercise
Plenary session: preferences for policy options regarding fossil fuels.
- Analysis of result
- Wrap-up panel and discussion
- What makes a good question?
- How do you sit down with an expert and elicit these uncertainty distributions?
- On what are the judgments based? How do we capture that?
- How do you know when your expert is "done" with estimating a particular quantile? What is the elicitor's role in trying to determine that? What are different approaches you might take?
- What do you do if you think your expert is gaming or being "strategic" in some way?
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