Skip Ribbon Commands
Skip to main content
Home | Support RFF | Join E-mail List | Contact
RFF Logo
Skip navigation links
RESEARCH TOPICS
CENTERS
PUBLICATIONS
NEWS
EVENTS
RESEARCHERS
ABOUT RFF
 

 

 
Join E-mail List
Please provide your e-mail address to receive periodic newsletters and invitations to public events
 
 
Timber Supply Model 96: A Global Timber Supply Model with a Pulpwood Component
Roger A. Sedjo, Kenneth S. Lyon
RFF Discussion Paper 96-15 | April 1996
RESEARCH TOPICS:
Abstract

This study involves an update of our earlier Timber Supply Model, which was fully developed in our book, The Adequacy Of Global Timber Supply by Sedjo and Lyon (1990), published by Resources for the Future. The new version, called Timber Supply Model 1996 (TSM96), uses an economic market supply/demand approach to project an intertemporal time path of the world's price and output level of industrial wood. As did the original TSM, the TSM96 provides projections of the time path of the equilibrium output levels of the several regions into which the world has been subdivided. A major new feature of TSM96 is that industrial wood, treated as homogeneous in the earlier study, has be subdivided into two different wood types — pulpwood and solidwood. The supply of these two commodities is not independent. Rather they can be viewed as joint products in production.

The study develops a base-case projection, which gives the authors' best judgment of the timber situation likely to develop over the next few decades. Over that period total industrial wood production increases from about 1.7 billion cubic meters to 2.3 billion cubic meters, an increase of about 35 percent, while global pulpwood production increases from about 700 million cubic meters in 1995 to about 1.325 billion in 2045. Pulpwood price shows a fairly substantial increase throughout the first one-third of the period, a more modest increase over the second third, and a slight decline during the last third. Solidwood prices are almost the inverse of pulpwood, declining over the first third of the decade, increasing slightly over the next third and increasing in the last third of the decade. Over the whole of the 50-year period overall price increases are 30 percent for pulpwood and only about 8 percent for solidwood.

RFF Home | RFF Press: An Imprint of Routledge Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Copyright Notice
1616 P St. NW, Washington, DC 20036 · 202.328.5000 Feedback | Contact Us