Abstract: Climate policymaking faces twin challenges of carbon leakage and public sector revenue requirements. A large literature advocates the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) pricing and recycling the revenues to lower distorting taxes as a way to minimize costs. In this paper, we explore the implications of labor tax interactions for the cost-effectiveness of border adjustments and other measures to cope with leakage. We find that, for plausible values of labor supply elasticities, the cost savings from revenue recycling are significant—from 15 to 25 percent. The cost savings from anti-leakage measures are generally smaller, but also significant, particularly for small coalitions or more binding reduction targets. Tax interactions further enhance the cost savings from border adjustments, but make other measures like rebates or exemptions less attractive.

Abstract: Efforts to limit cumulative emissions over the next century may be partially thwarted by the responses of fossil fuel suppliers. Current price-cost margins for major reserves are ample, leaving scope for significant price reductions if climate policies reduce demand for fossil fuels through conservation or substitution to clean alternatives. Most models simulating the consequences of climate policies completely disregard these supply responses. As for theoretical models, under standard assumptions they predict such strong supplier responses that climate policies may have no effect on cumulative emissions and may even leave society worse off, suffering damages from global warming sooner and with less time to adapt (the “green paradox”).We contribute to this literature by developing a richer theoretical model that takes account of the different extraction costs and emissons rates of different fossil reserves. We use this model to compare the qualitative effects of four policy options—accelerating cost reductions in the clean backstop technologies, taxing emissions, improving energy efficiency, and a clean fuel blend mandate. We also discuss the consequences of mandating carbon capture and sequestration. All policies can reduce cumulative emissions, but the backstop policy accelerates emissions while conservation policies (energy efficiency or blend mandates) delay emissions. We then calibrate the model using data on costs, reserves, and emissions factors for five major categories of oil. Using this calibrated model, we estimate the interemporal leakage rate—the percentage error in cumulative emissions reductions that would arise if no account is taken of the supply responses of oil producers. We find that conservation policies can have higher intertemporal leakage rates and backstop policies can have lower leakage than an emissions tax. Leakage rates generally decline as the policies become more stringent.

Abstract: The adoption of domestic emissions trading schemes (ETS) can impose a heavy burden on energy-intensive industries. In particular, energy-intensive industries competing with foreign competitors could lose their international edge. Although the abatement of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in industrialized countries entails the reduction of their energy-intensive production, a corresponding increase in the production of energy-intensive goods in countries without CO2 regulations may lead to carbon “leakage.” This paper examines the effects of various allocation methods for granting emissions permits in the Japanese ETS on the economy and CO2 emissions using a multiregional and multisector computable general equilibrium model. Specifically, we apply the Fischer and Fox (2007) model to the Japanese economy to address carbon leakage and competitiveness issues. We compare auction schemes, grandfathering schemes, and output-based allocation (OBA) schemes. We further extend the model by examining a combination of auctions and OBA. Though the auction scheme is found to be the best in terms of macroeconomic impacts (welfare and GDP effects), the leakage rate is high and the harm to energy-intensive sectors can be significant. OBA causes less leakage and damage to energy-intensive sectors, but the macroeconomic impact is undesirable. Considering all three effects—leakage, competitiveness, and macroeconomics—we find that combinations of auctions and OBA (with gratis allocations solely to energy-intensive, trade-exposed sectors) are desirable.

Abstract: Given the bleak prospects for a global agreement on coordinated policies to mitigate climate change, political pressure is increasing among industrialized countries for unilateral abatement. A major challenge thereby is the appropriate response to the threat of emissions leakage. Border carbon adjustments and output-based allocation of emissions allowances can increase effectiveness of unilateral action but introduce distortions of their own. We assess the relative attractiveness of these anti-leakage measures as a function of the abatement coalition size. We first develop a partial equilibrium analytical framework to gain generic insights on how these instruments affect emissions within and outside the coalition. We then employ a large-scale computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative anti-leakage strategies as the coalition evolves toward global coverage. We find that full border adjustments rank first in global cost-effectiveness, followed by import tariffs and then output-based rebates. The differences across anti-leakage measures and the overall appeal of such measures decline with the size of the abatement coalition. In terms of cost incidence, the abatement coalition prefers border carbon adjustments over output-based rebates; the opposite holds true for countries outside the coalition.

Abstract: For reducing greenhouse gas emissions, intensity targets are attracting interest as a flexible mechanism that would better allow for economic growth than emissions caps. For the same expected emissions, however, the economic responses to unexpected productivity shocks differ. Using a real business cycle model, we find that a cap dampens the effects of productivity shocks in the economy. An emissions tax leads to the same expected outcomes as a cap but with greater volatility. Certainty-equivalent intensity targets maintain higher levels of labor, capital, and output than other policies, with lower expected costs and no more volatility than with no policy.

Abstract: The allocation of tradable emissions permits has important efficiency and distributional effects in the presence of preexisting distortions. Three such imperfections are noteworthy for the "downstream" implementation of a domestic emissions trading program for greenhouse gases: 1) distorting labor taxes in the economy, 2) emissions ?leakage due to the lack of comparable emissions pricing abroad, and 3) incomplete coverage of the trading program, which allows domestic leakage. Because regulations that raise the price of covered sector goods exacerbate these problems, a potential response is to combine the emissions price with a rebate to production, such as by output-based allocations (OBA) of emissions permits. We employ a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model based on the GTAP framework to compare different rules for allocating carbon allowances among the major emissions-intensive sectors within a trading program in the U.S. economy. We find that OBA for energy-intensive, trade-exposed sectors can dominate auctioning with revenue recycling, both from a domestic and a global welfare perspective. Granting similar rebates to the electricity sector tends to reduce welfare when those revenues would otherwise be recycled, but it can enhance welfare if the allowance values would otherwise be grandfathered.

Abstract: This study explores the role of market power on the cost-effectiveness of policies to address fuel consumption. Market power gives manufacturers an incentive to under- (over-) provide fuel economy in classes whose consumers, on average, value it less (more) than in others. Adding a second market failure in consumer valuation of fuel economy, a policy trade-off emerges. Minimum standards can address distortions from price discrimination but, unlike average standards, do not provide broad-based incentives for improving fuel economy. Increasing fuel prices raises demand for fuel economy but exacerbates undervaluation and incentives for price discrimination. A combination policy may be preferred. For modelers of fuel economy policy, failure to capture consumer heterogeneity in preferences for fuel economy can lead to significant errors in predicting the distribution of effort in complying with regulation, as well as the calculation and distribution of the benefits.

Abstract: Individual countries are in the process of legislating responses to the challenges posed by climate change. The prospect of rising carbon prices raises concerns in these nations about the effects on the competitiveness of their own energy-intensive industries and the potential for carbon leakage, particularly leakage to emerging economies that lack comparable regulation. In response, certain developed countries are proposing controversial trade-related measures and allowance allocation designs to complement their climate policies. Missing from much of the debate on trade-related measures is a broader understanding of how climate policies implemented unilaterally (or subglobally) affect all countries in the global trading system. Arguably, the largest impacts are from the targeted carbon pricing itself, which generates macroeconomic effects, terms-of-trade changes, and shifts in global energy demand and prices; it also changes the relative prices of certain energy-intensive goods. This paper studies how climate policies implemented in certain major economies (the European Union and the United States) affect the global distribution of economic and environmental outcomes, and how these outcomes may be altered by complementary policies aimed at addressing carbon leakage.

Abstract: This paper discusses fuel economy regulations in the United States and other countries. We first describe how these programs affect fuel use and other dimensions of the vehicle fleet. We then review different methodologies for assessing the costs of fuel economy regulations and discuss the policy implications of the results. We also compare the welfare effects of fuel economy standards with those of fuel taxes and assess whether these two policies complement each other. Finally, we review arguments in favor of a “feebate” system, which imposes fees on inefficient vehicles and provides rebates for efficientvehicles.

Abstract: Since the energy crisis in the 1970s and later the growing concern for climate change in the 1990s, policymakers at all levels of government and around the world have been enthusiasticallysupporting a wide range of incentive mechanisms for electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E). Motivations range from energy security to environmental preservation to green jobs and innovation, and measures comprise an array of subsidies to mandates to emissions trading. But do these policies work together or at cross-purposes? To evaluate RES-E policies, one must understand how specific policymechanisms interact with each other and under what conditions multiple policy levers are necessary. In this article, we review the recent environmental economics literature on the effectiveness of RES-E policies and the interactions between them, with a focus on the increasing use of tradable quotas for both emissions reduction and RES-E expansion.

Abstract: Emissions regulations like carbon pricing raise the price of covered sector goods and thus can interact with and exacerbate other preexisting distortions in the economy. One such distortion is labor taxes. Another is emissions "leakage" due to the lack of comparable emissions pricing abroad or among other emitting sectors at home. A potential response is to combine the emissions tax with a rebate to production to mitigate the price increases. We use an optimal tax framework to solve for the optimal emissions tax and output rebate, given these distortions. We then employ a multisector computable general equilibrium model based on the GTAP framework to simulate the effects of a $50 per-ton carbon tax on the major emissions-intensive sectors in the U.S. economy and estimate optimal rebates by sector.

Abstract: We explore conditions determining which anti-leakage policies might be more effective complements to regulation of domestic greenhouse gas emissions. We consider four policies that could be combined with unilateral emissions pricing to counter effects on international competitiveness: a border charge on imports, a border rebate for exports, full border adjustment, and domestic output-based rebating. Each option faces different potential legal hurdles in international trade law; each also has different economic impacts. While all can support competitiveness, none is necessarily effective at reducing global emissions. Nor is it possible to rank the options; effectiveness depends on the relative emissions rates, elasticities of substitution, and consumption volumes. We illustrate these results with simulations for the energy-intensive sectors of three different economies—the United States, Canada, and Europe. Although most controversial, full border adjustment is usually most effective, but output-based rebating for key manufacturing sectors can achieve many of the gains.

Abstract: This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand as measured in physical quantities. Overall, based on an analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year over the one- to five-year projection horizon after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days.For the 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the error patterns over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility natural gas, transportation distillate, and residential electricity all show significant biases, on average, across the full five year projection horizon examined. Projections for certain other fuels/consuming sectors have significant unexplained errors for selected time horizons.Independent evaluation of this type can be useful for validating ongoing analytic efforts and for prioritizing future model revisions.

Abstract: Much discussion has surrounded possible alternatives for international agreements on climate change, particularly post-2012. Among these alternatives, technology-oriented agreements (TOAs) are perhaps the least well defined. We explore what TOAs may consist of, why they might be sensible, which TOAs already exist in international energy and environmental governance, and whether they have the potential to make a valuable contribution to addressing climate change. We conclude that TOAs aimed at knowledge sharing and coordination, research, development, or demonstration could increase the overall efficiency and effectiveness of international climate cooperation, but have limited environmental effectiveness on their own. Technology-transfer agreements are likely to have similar properties unless the level of resources expended on them is large, in which case they could be environmentally significant. Technology mandates, standards, or incentives can be environmentally effective, within the applicable sector. However, they are likely to be less cost-effective than broad-based, flexible approaches that place a price on emissions. These results indicate that TOAs have the potential to improve the effectiveness of the global response to climate change. The success of specific TOAs will depend on their design, implementation, and the role they are expected to play relative to other components of the climate policy portfolio.

Abstract: Some studies of renewable portfolio standards find that regulations increase generation costs; others find that reduced demand for nonrenewable energy sources lowers natural gas prices and that electricity prices follow. This paper presents reasoning for why these predictions can vary in the direction as well as in the magnitude of their effects. The driving factors are the relative elasticities of electricity supply from both fossil and renewable energy sources. The availability of other baseload generation is another factor, whereas demand elasticity influences only the magnitude of the price effects, not the direction of those effects.

Abstract: The forestry industry provides a good illustration of the active roles that industry associations,environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), national governments, and internationalorganizations can play in developing and promoting codes of conduct that are formally sanctioned andcertified. It also reflects some of the challenges of disseminating codes of conduct in developing countriesand ensuring market benefits from certification. We describe the emergence of forest certificationstandards, outline current certification schemes, and discuss the role of major corporations in creatingdemand for certified products. We also discuss the limited success of certification and some of theobstacles to its adoption in developing countries. The current diversity of forest certification programsand ecolabeling schemes has created a costly, less-than-transparent system that has been largelyineffective in terms of the initial goals of reducing tropical deforestation and illegal logging. Some stepshave been taken toward harmonization of different certification criteria as well as endorsement andmutual recognition among existing forest certification programs. However, it is unlikely thatstandardization alone can overcome other, more serious barriers to certification in developing countries.

Abstract: This paper formulates a bioeconomic model to analyze community incentives for wildlifemanagement under benefit-sharing programs like the Communal Areas Management Programme forIndigenous Resources (CAMPFIRE) in Zimbabwe. Two agents influence the wildlife stock: a parksagency determines hunting quotas, and a local community chooses to either aid or discourage outsidepoachers. Wildlife generates revenues from hunting licenses and tourism; it also intrudes on localagriculture. We consider two benefit-sharing regimes: shares of wildlife tourism rents and shares ofhunting licenses. Resource sharing does not necessarily improve community welfare or incentives forwildlife conservation. Results depend on the exact design of the benefit shares, the size of the benefitscompared with agricultural losses, and the way in which the parks agency sets hunting licenses.

Abstract: In a developing country context, a policy to promote adoption of common environmental content forcorporate codes of conduct (COCs) aspires to meaningful results on two fronts. First, adherence to COCprovisions should offer economic benefits that exceed the costs of compliance; i.e., companies mustreceive a price premium, market expansion, efficiency gains, subsidized technical assistance, or somecombination of these benefits in return for meeting the requirements. Second, compliance should producesignificant improvements in environmental outcomes; i.e., the code must impose real requirements, andmonitoring and enforcement must offer sufficient incentives to prevent evasion. With those goals in mind,we explore options for establishing common environmental content in voluntary COCs. Because thebenefits of a COC rest on its ability to signal information, we ground our analysis in a review ofexperiences with a broad range of voluntary (and involuntary) information-based programs: not onlyexisting corporate COCs, but also the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) family ofstandards, ecolabels, and information disclosure programs. We find some important tradeoffs betweenharmonization, applicability, feasibility, and efficacy.

Abstract: This paper develops analytical and numerical models to explain and estimate the welfare effects of raising Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for new passenger vehicles. The analysis encompasses a wide range of scenarios concerning consumers’ valuation of fuel economy and the full economic costs of adopting fuel-saving technologies. It also accounts for, and improves estimates of, CAFE’s impact on externalities from local and global pollution, oil dependence, traffic congestion, and accidents. The bottom line is that it is difficult to make an airtight case either for or against tightening CAFE on pure efficiency grounds, as the magnitude and direction of the welfare change varies across different, plausible scenarios.

Abstract: AbstractThe choice of mechanism for allocating tradable emissions permits has important efficiency anddistributional effects when tax and trade distortions are considered. We present different rules forallocating carbon allowances within sectors (lump-sum grandfathering, output-based allocation [OBA],and auctioning) and among sectors (historical emissions and value-added shares). Using a partialequilibrium model, we explore how OBA mitigates price increases, limits incentives for conservation infavor of lowering energy intensity, and changes relative output prices among sectors. We then use acomputable general equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project, modified to incorporate alabor/leisure choice, to compare overall mechanism performance. The output subsidies implicit in OBAmitigate tax interactions, which can lead to higher welfare than grandfathering. OBA with sectoraldistributions based on value added generates effective subsidies similar to a broad-based tax reduction,performing nearly like auctioning with revenue recycling, which generates the highest welfare. OBAbased on historical emissions supports the output of more polluting industries, which more effectivelycounteracts carbon leakage but is more costly in welfare terms. Industry production and trade impactsamong sectors that are less energy intensive are also quite sensitive to allocation rules.

Abstract: Project-based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits, like the Clean DevelopmentMechanism, pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics.Participation is voluntary, so it will not occur without sufficient credits. Evaluating reductions requiresassigning an emissions baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured. Some investments haveboth economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway. Uncertainty surrounds bothemissions and investment returns, and parties to the project are likely to have more information than thecertifying authority. The certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would revealinvestment intentions. As a result, rules for benchmarking emissions may be systematically biased tooverallocate, and they also risk creating inefficient investment incentives. This paper evaluates, in asituation with asymmetric information, the efficacy of the main baseline rules currently underconsideration: historical emissions, an average industry emissions standard, and expected emissions.

Abstract: Some environmental policies focus on emissions intensity rather than total emissions, or they try to mitigate the regulatory impact on the final product market. To analyze the effects of these policies, or to evaluate the distributional effects of any regulation on consumers and producers, output must be incorporated explicitly into an economic model of abatement, separately from the emissions variable. This provides two options. Traditionally, total emissions and output are the independently controlled variables, leaving emissions intensity as endogenously determined. Alternatively, one can make emissions intensity and output the control variables, leaving total emissions as the endogenously determined variable. One is the dual of the other and the problems are equivalent, but the latter method offers more transparency for examining intensity-based policies. This note shows how the intensity-based model fits into the traditional context.

Abstract: We assess different policies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting the innovation and diffusion of renewable energy. We evaluate the relative performance of policies according to incentives provided for emissions reduction, efficiency, and other outcomes. We also assess how the nature of technological progress through learning and R&D, and the degree of knowledge spillovers, affect the desirability of different policies. Due to knowledge spillovers, optimal policy involves a portfolio of different instruments targeted at emissions, learning, and R&D. Although the relative cost of individual policies in achieving reductions depends on parameter values and the emissions target, in a numerical application to the U.S. electricity sector, the ranking is roughly as follows: (1) emissions price, (2) emissions performance standard, (3) fossil power tax, (4) renewables share requirement, (5) renewables subsidy, and (6) R&D subsidy. Nonetheless, an optimal portfolio of policies achieves emissions reductions at significantly lower cost than any single policy.

Abstract: Policies to promote energy efficiency in household appliances have different impacts, depending on the structure of market supply. If provision is perfectly competitive, markets will offer the variety of energy efficiency levels that consumers demand. However, if producers can price discriminate, using energy intensity to help segment consumer demand, consumers of low-end appliances are offered too little energy efficiency so that high-end consumers can be charged more for efficient appliances. Minimum energy efficiency standards can then improve welfare. We also consider average intensity standards, energy prices, and innovation and identify important differences in their effects on energy intensity, welfare, and consumers, depending on market structures. To evaluate the role for policy, one must know not only how consumers value energy efficiency in their decisionmaking, but also how producers respond to those values.

Abstract: In a second-best world of below-optimal pollution pricing, the public return to R&D may be greater than under Pigouvian pricing, due to excess benefits of increasing abatement, or it may be lower, since private actors lack the incentives to take full advantage of the new, cleaner technologies. This paper uses a simple model to demonstrate the interaction between environmental policies, R&D externalities, and the social return to innovation. The results indicate that strong public support for innovation is only justified if at least a moderate emissions policy is in place and spillover effects are significant. Furthermore, in most cases, policy constraints that limit regulatory burdens tend to further limit the scope for public support, even when cost reductions allow for more stringent abatement targets. An exception is when knowledge of the policy adjustment process further reduces private innovation incentives.

Abstract: Although much has been written about the implications of monopoly power for the rateof extraction of natural resources, the specific case in which the resource can be sold in twomarkets with different elasticities of demand has escaped notice. We find that a monopolistfacing two markets with differing iso-elastic demand schedules extracts more rapidly than thesocial planner, whether or not arbitrage prevents price discrimination between markets. Thisanalysis is relevant in the case of many resources — such as natural gas used for power generationand household heating, or petroleum used for making plastics and as fuel.

Abstract: The Asian Development Bank has sponsored research on market-based instruments for managing pollution in Metro Manila, Philippines, where air quality is seriously degraded. This report offers three policy options for reducing particulate emissions and their precursors. For stationary sources, we recommend an emissions fee that creates efficient financial incentives to reduce emissions while raising revenues for monitoring and enforcement activities. For mobile sources, we propose a pilot diesel retrofit program using a low-cost technology that is effective at existing 2,000 ppm sulfur content. Second, we recommmend a charge on the sulfur content of diesel fuel to encourage meeting and surpassing the 500 ppm standard to allow for more advanced particulate trap technologies. Although better data are needed—both for designing controls and for evaluating their efficacy—much can be learned just by implementing these programs, so we make recommendations for starting points.

Abstract: Estimates of marginal abatement costs for reducing carbon emissions derived from majoreconomic-energy models vary widely. Controlling for policy regimes, we use meta-analysis to examinethe importance of structural modeling choices in explaining differences in estimates. The analysisindicates that particular assumptions about perfectly foresighted consumers and Armington tradeelasticities generate lower estimates of marginal abatement costs. Other choices are associated with highercost estimates, including perfectly mobile capital, inclusion of a backstop technology, and greaterdisaggregation among regions and sectors. Some features, such as greater technological detail, seem lesssignificant. Understanding the importance of key modeling assumptions, as well as the way the modelsare used to estimate abatement costs, can help guide the development of consistent modeling practices forpolicy evaluation.

Abstract: Output-based refunding of environmental policy revenues combines a tax on emissions with a subsidy to output. With imperfect competition, subsidies can discourage output underprovision. However, when market shares are significant, endogenous refunding suffers compared to a fixed subsidy. Refunding the emissions tax according to market share reduces the incentive to abate, and marginal abatement costs will not be equalized if market shares differ. In a Cournot duopoly, endogenous refunding leads to higher output, emissions, and possibly costs compared to a fixed rebate program. These results hold whether emission rates are determined simultaneously or strategically in a two-stage model.

Abstract: Rate-based emissions policies (like tradable performance standards) fix average emissions intensity, while cap-and-trade policies fix total emissions. This paper shows that unfettered trade between rate-based and cap-and-trade programs always raises combined emissions, except when product markets are related in particular ways. Gains from trade are fully passed on to consumers in the rate-based sector, resulting in more output and greater emissions allocations. We consider a range of policy options to offset the expansion, including unilateral ones when jurisdictional differences require. The cap-and-trade jurisdiction could impose an "exchange rate" to adjust for relative permit values, but marginal abatement cost equalization is sacrificed. Still, that jurisdiction may prefer adjusted trade over tightening their own cap, which transfers away rents. Although the rate-based sector would have to implement the switch to output-based allocation of a cap, its surplus would be higher than with adjusted trade, which is also preferred to no trade. The cap-and-trade sector would also be better off. Thus, a range of combinations of tighter allocations could improve situations in both sectors with trade, while holding emissions constant.

Abstract: Environmental policies with output-based refunding of the revenues effectively combine a tax on emissions with a subsidy to output. Three similar forms exist: tradable performance standards, an emissions tax with rebates, and tradable permits with output-based allocation. Two arguments for including an output subsidy are imperfect competition, in which an environmental regulation alone could exacerbate output underprovision, and imperfect participation, in which imposing a regulation on a subset of polluters could cause output to shift to exempt firms. However, both these scenarios imply that output shares among program participants are likely to be significant. In this situation, output-allocated permits offer less of a subsidy than a fixed rebate, and they can lead to inefficient shifting of production among participants. Rebating the emission tax reduces the incentive to abate, nor will marginal abatement costs be equalized if costs differ. These results hold in a Cournot duopoly model whether emission rates are determined simultaneously or strategically in a two-stage model.

Abstract: This paper examines whether the welfare gains from technological innovation that reduces future abatement costs are larger or smaller than the “Pigouvian” welfare gains from optimal pollution control. The relative welfare gains from innovation depend on three key factors - the initially optimal level of abatement, the speed at which innovation reduces future abatement costs, and the discount rate. We calculate the welfare gains from innovation under a variety of different scenarios. Mostly they are less than the Pigouvian welfare gains. To be greater, innovation must reduce abatement costs substantially and quickly and the initially optimal abatement level must be fairly modest.

Abstract: This paper examines whether the welfare gains from technological innovation that reduces future abatement costs are larger or smaller than the “Pigouvian” welfare gains from optimal pollution control. The relative welfare gains from innovation depend on three key factors: the initially optimal level of abatement, the speed at which innovation reduces future abatement costs, and the discount rate. We calculate the welfare gains from innovation under a variety of different scenarios. Mostly they are less than the Pigouvian welfare gains. To be greater, innovation must reduce abatement costs substantially and quickly and the initially optimal abatement level must be fairly modest.

Abstract: For the mitigation of long-term pollution threats, one must consider that both the process of environmental degradation and the switchover to new and cleaner technologies are dynamic. We develop a model of a uniform good that can be produced by either a polluting technology or a clean one; the latter is more expensive and requires investment in capacity. We derive the socially optimal pollution stock accumulation and creation of nonpolluting production capacity, weighing the tradeoffs among consumption, investment, and adjustment costs, and environmental damages.We consider the effects of changes in the pollution decay rate, the capacity depreciation rate, and the initial state of the environment on both the steady state and transition period. The optimal transition path looks quite different with a clean or dirty initial environment. With the former, investment is slow and the price of pollution may overshoot the long-run optimum before converging. With the latter, capacity may overshoot.

Abstract: We review the legal provisions of the WTO regime that have important implications for national, market-based environmental policies. We evaluate those provisions for their effects on a member country’s ability and incentives to design economically efficient environmental policies. International trade institutions do not recognize the polluter pays principle, posing some challenges for unilateral policies addressing cross-border pollutants and leakage. Nor do they recognize the economic equivalence of emission tax and permit regimes, leading to different potential constraints on policy design and leaving some environmental policies open to influence by protectionist motives. As many legality issues have yet to be disputed and resolved, opportunities exist to help the WTO and environmental institutions evolve in ways to enable and encourage good policymaking.

Abstract: Project-based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits, like the Clean Development Mechanism, pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics. Participation is voluntary. Evaluating reductions requires assigning a baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured. Some investments have both economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway. Uncertainty surrounds both emissions and investment returns. Parties to the project are likely to have more information than the certifying authority. The certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would reveal investment intentions. As a result, rules for baseline determination may be systematically biased to overallocate, and they also risk creating inefficient investment incentives. This paper evaluates, in a situation with asymmetric information, the efficacy of the main baseline rules currently under consideration: historical emissions, average industry emissions, and expected emissions.

Abstract: Abstract Economic models of trade in endangered species products often do not incorporate four focal arguments in the policy debate over trade bans: 1) law-abiding consumers may operate in another market, separate from illegal consumers, that trade would bring online; 2) legal trade reduces stigma, which affects demand of law-abiding consumers; 3) laundering may bring illegal goods to legal markets when trade is allowed; 4) legal sales may affect illegal supply costs. This paper analyzes systematically which aspects of these complicated markets, separately or in combination, are important for determining whether limited legalized trade in otherwise illegal goods can be helpful for achieving policy goals like reducing poaching.

Abstract: Political pressure often exists for rebating environmental levies, particularly when incomplete regulatory coverage allegedly creates an “unlevel playing field” with other, unregulated firms or industries. This paper assesses the conditions under which rebating environmental levies is justified for the regulated sector. It combines a theoretical approach based on second-best modeling with numerical simulations aimed at determining the most sensitive parameters. We find that if an adequate tax on production can be levied in the unregulated sector, no rebate is justified for the regulated sector. Moreover, even in the case of constrained taxation in the unregulated sector, a tax rebate or a subsidy in the regulated sector is not necessarily a welfare-increasing policy. The exception occurs when the goods of the competing sectors are close substitutes. We find that these kinds of policy contraints can be quite costly in terms of welfare.

Abstract: Political pressure often exists to earmark environmental tax revenues or permit rents to the industry affected by the regulation. This paper analyzes schemes that rebate revenues based on output shares: tradable performance standards, an emissions tax with market-share rebates, and tradable permits with output-based allocation. All three policies effectively combine a tax on emissions with a subsidy to output. The result is a shifting of emissions control efforts toward greater emissions rate reduction and less output contraction, with higher marginal costs of control and lower output prices compared to the social optimum, given any targeted level of abatement. These welfare costs depend on the degree of output substitutability and are likely to be much larger in the long run. While some political and market-failure justifications may exist, policy makers should carefully consider industry characteristics before engaging in output-based rebating.

Abstract:

Many studies have shown that the activities of multinational corporations are quite sensitive to differences in income tax rates across countries. In this paper, I explore the interaction between multinational taxation and abatement activities under an international emissions permit trading scheme. Four types of plans are considered: (1) a single domestic permit system with international offsets; (2) separate national permit systems without trade; (3) separate national permit systems with limited offsets; and (4) an international permit trading system. For each plan, I model the incentives for the multinational firm to choose abatement activities at home and abroad and to transfer emissions credits between parent and subsidiary.

Limits on trading across countries restrict efficiency gains from abatement, as is well known. But I show furthermore that if available offset opportunities are limited to actual abatement activities, those activities are more susceptible to distortions from incentives to shift taxable income. Transfer pricing rules can limit but not always eliminate these distortions. In a system of unlimited international trading, abatement is efficiently allocated across countries, but tax shifting can still be achieved through intra-firm transfer pricing. From the basis of efficiency for both environmental and tax policies, the best design is an international permit trading system with transparent, enforceable transfer pricing rules.

Abstract:

Economists have speculated that the welfare gains from technological innovation that reduces the future costs of environmental protection could be a lot more important than the "Pigouvian" welfare gains over time from correcting a pollution externality. If so, then a primary concern in the design of environmental policies should be the impact on induced innovation, and a potentially strong case could be made for additional instruments such as research subsidies.

This paper examines the magnitude of the welfare gains from innovation relative to the discounted Pigouvian welfare gains, using a dynamic social planning model in which research and development (R&D) augments a knowledge stock that reduces future pollution abatement costs.

We find that the discounted welfare gains from innovation are typically smaller....and perhaps much smaller....than the discounted Pigouvian welfare gains. This is because the long-run gain to innovation is bounded by the maximum reduction in abatement costs and, since R&D is costly, it takes time to accumulate enough knowledge to substantially reduce abatement costs. Only in cases when innovation substantially reduces abatement costs quickly (by roughly 50% within 10 years) and the Pigouvian amount of abatement is initially modest, can the welfare gains from innovation exceed the welfare gains from pollution control. These results apply for both flow and stock pollutants, and for linear and convex environmental damage functions.

Our results suggest that spurring technological innovation should not be emphasized at the expense of achieving the optimal amount of pollution control. More generally, our results appear to have implications for a broad range of policy issues. They suggest that the welfare gains from innovation that reduces the costs of supplying any public good (defense, crime prevention, infrastructure, etc.) may be fairly small relative to those from providing the optimal amount of the public good over time.

Abstract: A model of time-consistent procrastination is developed to assess the extent to which the observed behavior is compatible with rational behavior. When a finite work requirement must be completed by a deadline, the remaining time for leisure is an exhaustible resource. With a positive rate of time preference, the optimal allocation of this resource results in more hours spent working (and fewer in leisure) the closer the deadline. Key qualitative findings of psychological studies of academic procrastination are consistent with the standard natural resource management principles implied by the model, when suitably adapted to task aversiveness, uncertainty, and multiple deadlines. However, quantitatively, the fully rational model requires an extremely high rate of time preference or elasticity of intertemporal substitution to generate serious procrastination; furthermore, it cannot explain undesired procrastination. A companion paper, "Read This Paper Even Later: Procrastination with Time-Inconsistent Preferences" analyzes the extent to which alternative time discounting preferences can better explain such impatience and address the issue of self-control failures.

Abstract: Salience costs, along with imperfect foresight, have been used in previous studies to explain procrastination of a one-time task. A companion to this paper, "Read This Paper Later: Procrastination with Time-Consistent Preferences" analyzes the extent to which procrastination of a divisible task is compatible with rational behavior. While the fully rational model explains key qualitative observations, it requires an extremely high rate of time preference or elasticity of intertemporal substitution to generate serious procrastination and cannot explain undesired procrastination at all. This paper investigates the extent to which dynamically inconsistent preferences can better explain such impatience and address the issue of self-control failures. Two types of discount functions are presented, motivated by previous salience cost explanations. Hyperbolic discounting corresponds to a salient present; short-term discount rates are higher than long-term ones. A new form, differential discounting, arises from salient costs; utility from leisure is discounted at a higher rate than rewards from work. The model of a divisible task with delayed rewards generates clear predictions that can be used to distinguish between types. When workers have rational expectations about future behavior, both regimes induce self-control problems and sharper procrastination than standard exponential discounting. However, they have different implications for policies to induce work, reduce procrastination, and improve welfare.

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical and numerical comparison of the welfare impacts of alternative instruments for environmental protection in the presence of endogenous technological innovation. We analyze emissions taxes and both auctioned and free (grandfathered) emissions permits.

We find that under different sets of circumstances each of the three policies may induce a significantly higher welfare gain than the other two policies. In particular, the relative ranking of policy instruments can crucially depend on the ability of adopting firms to imitate the innovation, the costs of innovation, the slope and level of the marginal environmental benefit function, and the number of firms producing emissions. Moreover, although in theory the welfare impacts of policies differ in the presence of innovation, sometimes these differences are relatively small. In fact, when firms anticipate that policies will be adjusted over time in response to innovation, certain policies can become equivalent.

Our analysis is simplified in a number of respects; for example, we assume homogeneous and competitive firms. Nonetheless, our preliminary results suggest there is no clear-cut case for preferring any one policy instrument on the grounds of dynamic efficiency.

Abstract: In Kyoto in 1997, the US government agreed that between 2008 and 2012 it would limit average annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to seven percent below 1990 levels. As participants in the climate policy debate consider various means by which limits on US GHG emissions might be undertaken in the wake of the Kyoto agreement, there is considerable interest but also some confusion about how a GHG trading program could be organized and operated in practice. In this paper we address several aspects of policy design for a US system, such as who and what is covered by regulation, the organization of the trading system, how carbon permits are allocated, and how a system could be initiated and changed over time. The paper synthesizes existing analyses and adds new insights concerning uncertainty, intertemporal consistency, market institutions, and interactions with the tax system. Our fundamental conclusion is that a domestic "cap-and-trade" system with homogeneous permits applied to control flows of fossil fuels "upstream" in the energy system (along with selective inclusion of other gases and CO2 "sinks"), with permits auctioned periodically by the government, has the most appeal of different trading systems on efficiency and distributional grounds, though it may suffer politically because of its close resemblance to a carbon tax. We identify auction mechanisms that appear to be feasible and efficient for carbon permit allocation. We further argue that while the private sector should bear the "external" risk of changes in total permit availability as a consequence of modifications in international agreements, and that an auctioned upstream program provides more protection against the "internal" risk of efficiency-reducing opportunism by government regulators than other trading mechanisms.

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact on exhaustible resource markets of setup or shutdown costs, a sparsely analyzed category of nonconvex production technologies. This paper proves that, even under idealized circumstances for competition, a competitive equilibrium will fail to exist in the presence of setup costs, for any utility and cost functions such that a planner would exploit exhaustible resource pools sequentially.