Abstract: This is the first academic paper that reviews the economic, policy, and technology history of shale gas development in the United States. The primary objective of the paper is to answer the question of what led to the shale gas boom in the United States to help inform stakeholders in those countries that are attempting to develop their own shale gas resources. This paper is also a case study of the incentive, process, and impact of technology innovations and the role of government in promoting technology innovations in the energy industry. Our review finds that government policy, private entrepreneurship, technology innovations, private land and mineral rights ownership, high natural gas prices in the 2000s, and a number of other factors all made important contributions to the shale gas boom.

Abstract: In September 2011, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency promulgated the first-ever federal regulations mandating fuel economy improvements for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. While the performance-based approach to these rules offers familiarity and assurances of fuel economy improvements, it also has some well-known weaknesses. In this paper, we describe fuel economy technologies for the trucking sector, its economic structure, the details of the new fuel economy regulations, and the controversies they sparked. We then address issues raised in reviewing the accompanying regulatory impact analysis. Next, we highlight some flaws of this form of regulation and suggest a variety of alternative, more market-oriented approaches that might work better.

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a conceptual framework for understanding how analysis of costs and benefits might be incorporated into an assessment of regulatory policies affecting deepwater drilling. We begin by providing a framework for analyzing the life-cycle impacts of oil drilling and its alternatives, including onshore drilling and importing oil from abroad. We then provide background estimates of the different sources of oil supplied in the United States, look at how other oil supply sources might respond to regulations on deepwater drilling, and consider the economic costs of these regulations. After providing a comprehensive description of the potential costs and enefits from various types of drilling—including, when possible, estimates of the magnitude of these benefits and costs—we discuss the extent to which these costs and benefits may already be taken into account (or reinforced) through the legal, regulatory, and tax systems and through market mechanisms. We conclude by presenting a framework and simple example of how a cost–benefit analysis might be used to inform regulation of deepwater drilling, and sum up the policy implications of our work.

Abstract: Hypothetical bias is one of the main issues bedeviling the field of nonmarket valuation. The general criticism is that survey responses reflect how people would like to behave, rather than how they actually behave. In our study of climate change and emissions reductions, we took advantage of the increasing bulk of evidence from psychology and economics that addresses the effects of making promises, in order to investigate the effect of an oath script in a contingent valuation survey. The survey was conducted in Sweden and China, and its results indicate that an oath script has significant effects on respondent behavior in answering willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions, some of which vary by country. In both countries, the share of zero WTP responses and extremely high WTP responses decreases when an oath script is used, which also results in lower variance. In China, the oath script also reduces the average WTP, cutting it by half in certain instances. We also found that the oath script has different impacts on various respondent groups. For example, without the oath script, Communist party members in China are more likely than others to have a positive WTP for emissions reductions, but with the oath script, there is no longer any difference between the groups.

Abstract: According to recent assessments, the United States has considerably more recoverable natural gas in shale formations than was previously thought. Such a development raises expectations that U.S. energy consumption will shift toward natural gas. To examine how the apparent abundance of natural gas and projected growth of its use might affect natural gas prices, production, and consumption, we useNEMS-RFF to model a number of scenarios—reflecting different perspectives on natural gas availability, the availability of competing resources, demand for natural gas, and climate policy—through 2030. We find that more abundant shale gas resources create an environment in which natural gas prices are likely to remain attractive to consumers—even as policy advances additional uses of natural gas to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and bolster energy security.

Abstract: Unique survey data from a contingent valuation study conducted in three different countries (China, Sweden, and the United States) were used to investigate the ordinary citizen’s willingness to pay(WTP) for reducing CO2 emissions. We found that a large majority of the respondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humansare responsible for the increase. A smaller share of Americans, however, believes these statements, when compared to the Chinese and Swedes. A larger share of Americans is also pessimistic and believes that nothing can be done to stop climate change. We also found that Sweden has the highest WTP for reductions of CO2, while China has the lowest. Thus, even though the Swedes and Chinese are similar toeach other in their attitudes toward climate change, they differ considerably in their WTP. When WTP is measured as a share of household income, the willingness to pay is the same for Americans and Chinese, while again higher for the Swedes.

Abstract: Unique survey data from a contingent valuation study conducted in three different countries (China, Sweden, and the United States) were used to investigate the ordinary citizen’s willingness to pay (WTP) for reducing CO2 emissions. We found that a large majority of therespondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humans are responsible for the increase. A smaller share of Americans, however, believes these statements, when compared to the Chinese and Swedes. Alarger share of Americans is also pessimistic and believes that nothing can be done to stop climate change. We also found that Sweden has the highest WTP for reductions of CO2, while China has the lowest. Thus, even though the Swedes and Chinese are similar to each other in their attitudes toward climate change, they differ considerably in their WTP. When WTP is measured as a share of household income, the willingness to pay is the same for Americans andChinese, while again higher for the Swedes.

Abstract: Economic analyses of nature must somehow define the “environmental commodities” to which values are attached. This paper articulates a set of principles to guide the choice and interpretation of nonmarket commodities. We describe how complex natural systems can be decomposed consistent with what can be called “ecological production theory.” Ecological production theory—like conventional production theory—distinguishes between biophysical inputs, process, and outputs. We argue that a systems approach to the decomposition and presentation of natural commodities can inform and possibly improve the validity of nonmarket environmental valuation studies. We raise concerns about the interpretation, usefulness, and accuracy of benefit estimates derived without reference to ecological production theory.

Abstract: This paper provides an exhaustive review of critical issues in the design of climate mitigation policy by pulling together key findings and controversies from diverse literatures on mitigation costs, damage valuation, policy instrument choice, technological innovation, and international climate policy. We begin with the broadest issue of how high assessments suggest the near and medium term price on greenhouse gases would need to be, both under cost-effective stabilization of global climate and under net benefit maximization or Pigouvian emissions pricing. The remainder of the paper focuses on the appropriate scope of regulation, issues in policy instrument choice, complementary technology policy, and international policy architectures.

Abstract: This paper provides a review of the science pertaining to all aspects of acidification in the Adirondack Park, updating an earlier review of the science (Cook et al. 2002). The review supports an ongoing social science investigation into the willingness to pay for ecological improvements that would result from reduced acid deposition. This paper builds a bridge between the physical science and social science by providing the background that will allow researchers to accurately summarize the crucial elements of ecological status and improvement in a stated preference survey.

Abstract: This paper outlines recent developments in U.S. climate policies. Although the United States does not participate in the Kyoto Mechanism, a number of climate policies are being implemented at state levelas well as at the federal level. First, we report and compare the federal cap and trade proposals in the 110th Congress. Then, the paper illustrates the current situations of state level climate policies, such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the northeastern states or AB32 in California. We analyze these proposals from the viewpoint of technology policies and impacts on international markets. It is found that technology policies play important roles in the cap and trade proposals and that there is a great expectation for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology. In terms of the impacts on international markets, several federal proposals as well as regional programs permit trading in international markets. As emission targets become more stringent in the future, U.S. GHG emitters are more likely to interact with these markets. Thus, despite the lack of U.S. participation in the Kyoto Protocol, U.S. markets will be linked to foreign markets, at least, in an indirect way.

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the value of health risk reductions to Canadians in the context of clean and safe drinking water. The health risks we examine pertain both to microbial illnesses and/or deaths and bladder cancer illnesses and/or deaths. The cancer risks arise because chlorine, the most common disinfectant used to remove microbial contaminants, has been implicated in the production of trihalomethanes (a disinfection by-product linked to increases in bladder cancer cases). Under these circumstances, public health agencies face issues of risk–benefit valuation as well as risk–risk assessment. To address this policy issue, we undertook a panel-based Internet survey of 1,600 Canadians conducted in the summer of 2004 and presented respondents with text and graphical information regarding risk changes. We employed two valuation formats (contingent valuation and attribute-based stated choice) to elicit consumer preferences for public programs to reduce health risks associated with improved tap water. We also used multiple analytical methods, including willingness-to-pay space models, and examine a host of comparisons between contingent valuation and attribute-based methods to assess the effect of risk context on value. Our analysis of the stated preferences of consumers reveals several types of values that are of interest to policymakers. These include the value of mortality risk reductions and the value of morbidity risk reductions for both microbial contaminants and cancer. In addition, the value of reducing cancer risks versus microbial risks in a public context is revealed. Our results suggest that reducing mortality risks from microbial illness has greater value than reducing mortality risks from cancer. Similarly, overall microbial risk-reductions programs (mortality and morbidity) have higher value than cancer risk-reduction programs in this context. In addition, we provide separate estimates of the value of statistical life associated with cancer and microbial risks, in a public context, and the value of statistical illness cases associated with these two risks.

Abstract: We conducted a choice experiment presenting respondents with risk reductions for three types of illnesses related to air pollution—pollen allergy, chronic bronchitis, and lung cancer—splitting the sample to test the effects of private-good and public-good contexts on the value of a statistical case (VSC) of each illness type. The results indicate that pollen allergy would be valued less than chronic bronchitis, which would be valued less than lung cancer. In terms of the private/public goods context, when exogenous rates of time preference/discount rates were applied to the estimation procedure, the VSC for a specific illness almost always was larger for the public-goods context. However, because estimated rates of time preference are far larger in the private-goods context (17% versus 1.3%), the benefits are lower, and, as they are the denominator in the VSC calculation, the VSCs are larger. We also find some effects that could be attributed to paternalistic altruism on the rate of time preference, as well as on willingness to pay for illness risk reduction. For instance, respondents with children were willing to pay more for pollen allergy risk reduction than respondents without children but less for lung cancer in the public-goods context.

Abstract: This paper estimates the impact on Delhi’s air quality of a number of policy measures recently implemented in the city to curb air pollution using monthly time-series data from 1990 to 2005. The best known of these measures is the court-mandated conversion of all commercial passenger vehicles—buses, three-wheelers, and taxis—to compressed natural gas (CNG). Broadly, the results point to the success of a number of policies implemented in Delhi but also to a number of areas of growing concern. For example, the results suggest that the conversion of buses from diesel to CNG has helped to reduce PM10, CO, and SO2 concentrations in the city and has not, contrary to conventional wisdom, led to the recent increase in NO2. At the same time, however, the conversion of three-wheelers from petrol to CNG has not had the same benefit, possibly because of poor technology. Another policy measure that appears to have had a positive impact on air quality is the reduction in the sulfur content of diesel and petrol. This has led to a decrease in SO2 levels and, because of conversion of SO2 to sulfates (a fine particle), a decrease in PM10 concentrations. Some of these gains from fuel switching and fuel-quality improvements are, however, being negated by the increase in the proportion of diesel-fueled cars, which is leading to an increase in PM10 and NO2 levels, and by the sheer increase in the number of vehicles.

Abstract: Decision analysts are frequently called on to help inform decisionmakers in situations where there is considerable uncertainty. In such situations, expert elicitation of parameter values is frequently used to supplement more conventional research. This paper develops a formal protocol for expert elicitation with large, heterogeneous expert panels. We use formal survey methods to take advantage of variation in individual expert uncertainty and heterogeneity among experts as a means of quantifying and comparing sources of uncertainty about parameters of interest. We illustrate use of this protocol with an expert elicitation on the distribution of U.S. foodborne illness from each of 11 major foodborne pathogens to the consumption of one of 11 categories of food. Results show how multiple measures of uncertainty, made feasible by use of a large panel of experts, can help identify which of several types of risk management actions may be most appropriate.

Abstract: Determining the best use of food safety resources is a difficult task faced by public policymakers, regulatory agencies, state and local food safety and health agencies, as well as private firms. The Food Safety Research Consortium (FSRC) has developed a conceptual framework for priority setting and resource allocation for food safety that takes full account of the food system’s complexity and available data but is simple enough to be workable and of practical value to decisionmakers. The conceptual framework addresses the question of how societal resources, both public and private, can be used most effectively to reduce the public health burden of foodborne illness by quantitatively ranking risks and considering the availability, effectiveness, and cost of interventions to address these risks. We identify two types of priority-setting decisions: Purpose 1 priority setting that guides risk-based allocation of food safety resources, primarily by government food safety agencies, across a wide range of opportunities to reduce the public health impact of foodborne illness; and Purpose 2 priority setting that guides the choice of risk management actions and strategies with respect to particular hazards and commodities. It is essential that such a framework be grounded in a systems approach, multi-disciplinary in approach and integration of data, practical, flexible, and dynamic by including ongoing evaluation and continuous updating of risk rankings and other elements. The conceptual framework is a synthesis of ideas and information generated in connection with and during the three FSRC workshops convened under a project funded by the Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service of USDA. Workshop materials are available on the project website: http://www.card.iastate.edu/food_safety/.

Abstract: The recognition that environmental hazards can affect children differently and more severely than adults has provoked growing concern in industrialized nations about the impact of environmental pollution on children’s health. In this paper, commissioned by the OECD, we are charged with examining “economic uncertainties” associated with valuing the benefits of environmental policies that reduce risk to children’s health. We examine two sources of uncertainty in benefits estimation: forecasting uncertainty and modeling uncertainty. We explore how these sources of uncertainty affect the use of standard economic and non-economic approaches to the valuation of health benefits. These include willingness-to-pay measures, cost-of-illness and human-capital measures, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and related non-economic measures.

Abstract: A contingent valuation survey was conducted in Sizuoka, Japan, to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the risk of dying and calculate the value of statistical life (VSL) for use in environmental policy in Japan. Special attention was devoted to the effects of age and health characteristics on WTP. We find that the VSLs are somewhat lower (103 to 344 million yen) than those found in the virtually identical survey applied in some developed countries. These values were subject to a variety of validity tests, which they generally passed. We find that the WTP for those over age 70 is lower than that for younger adults, but that this effect is eliminated in multiple regression. Rather, when accounting for other covariates, we find that WTP generally increases with age throughout the ages in our sample (age 40 and over). The effect of health status on WTP is mixed, with WTP of those with cancer being lower than that of healthy respondents while the WTP of those with heart disease is greater. The VSLs for future risk changes are lower than those for contemporaneous risk reductions. The implicit discount rates of 5.8–8.0% are relatively larger than the discount rate regularly used in environment policy analyses. This first-of-its-kind survey in Japan provides information directly useful for estimating the benefits of environmental and other policies that lower mortality risks to the general population and sub-groups with a variety of specific traits.

Abstract: For years economists have urged policymakers to use market-based approaches such as cap-and-tradeprograms or emission taxes to control pollution. The SO2 allowance market created by Title IV of the1990 U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments represents the first real test of the wisdom of economists’ advice.Subsequent urban and regional applications of NOx emission allowance trading took shape in the 1990s inthe United States, culminating in a second large experiment in emission trading in the eastern UnitedStates that began in 2003. This paper provides an overview of the economic rationale for emission tradingand a description of the major U.S. programs for sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Weevaluate these programs along measures of performance including cost savings, environmental integrity,and incentives for technological innovation. We offer lessons for the design of future programs including,most importantly, those reducing carbon dioxide.

Abstract: In order to help facilitate a risk-based food safety system, we developed the Foodborne Illness Risk Ranking Model (FIRRM), a decisionmaking tool that quantifies and compares the relative burden to society of 28 foodborne pathogens. FIRRM estimates the annual number of cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities caused by each foodborne pathogen, subsequently estimates the economic costs and QALY losses of these illnesses, and, lastly, attributes these pathogen-specific illnesses and costs to categories of food vehicles, based on outbreak data and expert judgment. The model ranks pathogen-food combinations according to five measures of societal burden. FIRRM incorporates probabilistic uncertainty within a Monte Carlo simulation framework and produces confidence intervals and statistics for all outputs. Gaps in data, most importantly in regards to food attribution and the statistical uncertainty of incidence estimates, currently limit the utility of the model. Once we address these and other problems, however, FIRRM will be a robust and useful decisionmaking tool.

Abstract: A key question in developing effective mitigation strategies for ozone and particulate matter is identifying which source regions contribute to concentrations in receptor regions. Using a direct approach with a regional, multiscale three-dimensional model, we derive multiple source-receptor matrices (S-Rs) to show inter- and intrastate impacts of emissions on both ozone and PM2.5 over the eastern United States. Our results show that local (in-state) emissions generally account for about 23% of both local ozone concentrations and PM2.5 concentrations, while neighboring states contribute much of the rest. The relative impact of each state on others varies dramatically between episodes. In reducing fine particulate concentrations, we find that reducing SO2 emissions can be 10 times as effective as reducing NOx emissions. SO2 reductions can lead to some increase in nitrates, but this is relatively small. NOx reductions, however, lead to both ozone reductions and some reduction in nitrate and sulfate particulate matter.

Abstract: Using results from two contingent valuation surveys conducted in Canada and the United States, we explore the effect of a latency period on willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced mortality risk using both structural and reduced form approaches. We find that delaying the time at which the risk reduction occurs by 10 to 30 years significantly reduces WTP for respondents aged 40 to 60 years. Additionally, we estimate implicit discount rates equal to 8% for Canada and 4.5% for the United States—both well within the range established previously in the literature.

Abstract: The Asian Development Bank has sponsored research on market-based instruments for managing pollution in Metro Manila, Philippines, where air quality is seriously degraded. This report offers three policy options for reducing particulate emissions and their precursors. For stationary sources, we recommend an emissions fee that creates efficient financial incentives to reduce emissions while raising revenues for monitoring and enforcement activities. For mobile sources, we propose a pilot diesel retrofit program using a low-cost technology that is effective at existing 2,000 ppm sulfur content. Second, we recommmend a charge on the sulfur content of diesel fuel to encourage meeting and surpassing the 500 ppm standard to allow for more advanced particulate trap technologies. Although better data are needed—both for designing controls and for evaluating their efficacy—much can be learned just by implementing these programs, so we make recommendations for starting points.

Abstract: In this paper, we develop an integrated cost-benefit analysis framework for ozone and fine particulate control, accounting for variability and uncertainty. The framework includes air quality simulation, sensitivity analysis, stochastic multi-objective air quality management, and stochastic cost-benefit analysis. This paper has two major contributions. The first is the development of stochastic source-receptor (S-R) coefficient matrices for ozone and fine particulate matter using an advanced air quality simulation model (URM-1ATM) and an efficient sensitivity algorithm (DDM-3D). The second is a demonstration of this framework for alternative ozone and PM2.5 reduction policies. Alternative objectives of the stochastic air quality management model include optimization of the net social benefits and maximization of the reliability of satisfying certain air quality goals. We also examine the effect of accounting for distributional concerns.

Abstract: Mercury contamination of the Chesapeake Bay is a concern to health authorities in the region. We evaluate the economic and health effects of postulated recreational and commercial fishing advisories for striped bass on the Maryland portion of the bay. Awareness of and response to the advisory is estimated using a meta-analysis of the literature. Three values are estimated: welfare losses to recreational anglers, welfare losses in the commercial striped bass fishery, and health benefits. An estimate of percentage of consumer surplus loss is applied to the value of all fishing days in the bay to estimate recreational welfare loss. Welfare losses to the commercial fishery are estimated based on a model of supply and demand. Health benefits are estimated using estimated exposure and epidemiological relationships, and while potentially large, are highly uncertain. Results also suggest most individuals are below advisory standards ex ante, such that advisories should target high-frequency consumers.

Abstract: To reduce carbon emissions worldwide, it makes sense to consider the possibility of developed countries paying for carbon reductions in developing countries. Developing countries may be interested in such activities if the ancillary air pollution benefits are large.This paper reports on an RFF survey of the emissions benefits (and costs) of reducing sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from small, coal-burning boilers in Taiyuan, an industrial, northern Chinese city that recently banned uncontrolled coal combustion in certain small boilers in the downtown area.We find significant carbon benefits in percentage terms - on the order of 50% to 95% reduction - associated with this SO₂ control policy, with large reduction potential elsewhere in Taiyuan and China. While the cost for boilers that switched out of coal was almost $3,600 per ton of SO₂ reduced, these ancillary carbon reductions are truly "free" from a social cost perspective.

Abstract:

Much of the justification for environmental rulemaking rests on estimates of the benefits to society of reduced mortality rates. Yet the literature providing estimates of the willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions measures the value that healthy, prime-aged adults place on reducing their risk of dying, whereas the majority of statistical lives saved by environmental programs, according to epidemiological studies, appear to be the lives of older people and people with chronically impaired health.

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the effects of age and baseline health on WTP for mortality risk reductions by reporting the results of two contingent valuation surveys designed to test the above hypotheses. One survey was administered in-person to residents of Hamilton, Ontario, and the other to a nationally representative sample of U.S. residents using the Internet. Both surveys elicited respondents’ WTP for reductions in mortality risk of different magnitudes. Respondents were limited to persons aged 40 years and older, including those older than 60, to examine the impact of age on WTP. Extensive information was collected about each respondent’s health status to see whether it systematically influenced WTP.

Our results provide weak support for the notion that WTP declines with age, but only after age 70. Specifically, in our Canadian sample, WTP declines by about 30% after age 70 compared with WTP at younger ages. There is no such statistically significant decline, however, in the U.S. sample. We similarly find no support for the idea that people who have cancer or chronic heart or lung disease are willing to pay less to reduce their risk of dying than people without these illnesses. If anything, people with these illnesses are willing to pay more.

Abstract: This paper considers how moderate actions to slow atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use also could reduce conventional air pollutants in the United States. The benefits that result would be “ancillary” to greenhouse gas abatement. Moreover, the benefits would tend to accrue locally and in the near term, while benefits from reduced climate change mostly accrue globally and over a time frame of several decades or longer. The previous literature suggests that changes in nitrogen oxides (NO_x) would be the most important consequence of moderate carbon policies. We calculate these changes in a detailed electricity model linked to an integrated assessment framework to value changes in human health. A tax of $25 per metric ton of carbon emissions would yield NO_x related health benefits of about $8 per metric ton of carbon reduced in the year 2010 (1997 dollars). Additional savings accrue from reduced investment in NO_x and SO₂ abatement in order to comply with emission caps. These savings sum to $4-$7 per ton of carbon reduced. Total ancillary benefits of a $25 carbon tax are estimated to be $12-$14, which appear to justify the costs of a $25 tax, although marginal benefits are less than marginal costs. At a tax of $75 per ton carbon, greater health benefits and abatement cost savings are achieved but the value of ancillary benefits per ton of carbon reductions remains roughly constant at about $12.

Abstract: Accurate estimates of pollution abatement costs are crucial elements of any rational effort to set or evaluate environmental policies. One of the primary sources of this information in the United States has been the Bureau of the Census (BOC) Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures (PACE) survey, which collected annual establishment-level data on abatement costs for most years between 1972 and 1994. After a five-year lapse, the PACE survey was restarted in 2000, collecting 1999 data. Yet as firms have turned to more comprehensive abatement strategies involving process and design changes, pollution prevention, and recycling, the PACE survey has faced a number of problems that limit its ability to accurately measure abatement costs. At the same time, both national and international interest in understanding the true costs of environmental protection has grown, along with the complexity of the research and policy issues currently under discussion. There is now widespread interest in redesigning the PACE survey to improve its usefulness to policymakers as well as to researchers. In March 2000, Resources for the Future (RFF) convened an expert workshop to consider a wide range of issues relevant to future PACE surveys. This report describes the workshop and derives a number of conclusions based on discussions at the workshop.

Abstract:

Much of the justification for environmental rulemaking rests on estimates of the benefits to society of reduced mortality rates. This research aims to fill gaps in the literature that estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) by designing and implementing a contingent valuation study for persons 40 to 75 years of age, and eliciting WTP for reductions in current and future risks of death. Targeting this age range also allows us to examine the impact of age on WTP and, by asking respondents to complete a detailed health questionnaire, to examine the impact of health status on WTP.

This survey was self-administered by computer to 930 persons in Hamilton, Ontario, in 1999. The survey uses audio and visual aids to communicate baseline risks of death and risk changes and are tested for comprehension of probabilities before being asked WTP questions. We credit these efforts at risk communication with the fact that mean WTP of respondents faced with larger risk reductions exceeds mean WTP of respondents faced with smaller risk reductions; that is, our respondents pass the external scope test.

Our mean WTP estimates for a contemporaneous risk reduction imply a VSL ranging approximately from $1.2 to $3.8 million (1999 C$), depending on the size of the risk change valued, which is at or below estimates commonly used in environmental cost-benefit analyses by the Canadian and the U.S. governments. Interestingly, we find that age has no effect on WTP until roughly age 70 and above (the VSL is about $0.6 million for this age group) and that physical health status, with the possible exception of having cancer, has no effect. We also find that being mentally healthy raises WTP substantially. In addition, compared with estimates of WTP for contemporaneous risk reductions, mean WTP estimates for risk reductions of the same magnitude but beginning at age 70 are more than 50% smaller.

Abstract:

Reducing nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions in the eastern United States has become the focus of efforts to meet ozone air quality goals and will be useful for reducing particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the future. This paper addresses many aspects of the debate over the appropriate approach for obtaining reductions in NO_x emissions from point sources beyond those called for in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Data on NO_x control technologies and their associated costs, spatial models linking NO_x emissions and air quality, and benefit estimates of the health effects of changes in ozone and PM concentrations are combined to allow an analysis of alternative policies in thirteen states in the eastern United States. The first part of the study examines the cost and other consequences of a command-and-control approach embodied in the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) NO_x SIP call, which envisions large reductions in NO_x from electric utilities and other point sources. These results are compared to the alternative policy of ton-for-ton NO_x emissions trading, similar to that proposed by the EPA for utilities. We find that emission reduction targets can be met at roughly 50% cost savings under a trading program when there are no transaction costs.

The paper examines a number of alternative economic incentive policies that have the potential to improve upon the utility NO_x trading plan proposed by EPA, including incorporation of other point sources in the trading program, incorporation of ancillary PM benefits to ozone reductions in the trading program, and trading on the basis of ozone exposures that incorporates the spatial impact of emissions on ozone levels. For the latter analysis, we examine spatially differentiated permit systems for reducing ozone exposures under different and uncertain meteorological conditions, including an empirical analysis of the trade-off between the reliability (or degree of certainty) of meeting ozone exposure reduction targets and the cost of NO_x control. Finally, several policies that combine costs and health benefits from both ozone and PM reductions are compared to command-and-control and single-pollutant trading policies. The first of these is a full multipollutant trading system that achieves a health benefit goal, with the interpollutant trading ratios governed by the ratio of unit health benefits of ozone and PM. Then, a model that maximizes aggregate benefits from both ozone and PM exposure reductions net of the costs of NO_x controls is estimated.

EPA’s program appears to be reasonably cost-effective compared to all of the other more complex trading programs we examined. It may even be considered an optimal policy that maximizes net aggregate benefits if the high estimate of benefits is used in which mortality risk is linked to ozone exposure. Without this controversial assumption, however, we find that EPA’s NO_x reduction target is far too large.

Abstract:

Location efficient mortgages (LEM) programs are an increasingly popular approach to combating urban sprawl. LEMs allow families who want to live in densely-populated, transit-rich communities to obtain larger mortgages with smaller downpayments than traditional underwriting guidelines allow.

LEMs are premised on the proposition that homeowners in such "location efficient" areas can safely be allowed to breach underwriting guidelines designed to prevent mortgage default because they have lower than average automobile-related transportation expenses and more income available for mortgage payments. This paper employs records of over 8,000 FHA-insured mortgages matched with data on various measures of location efficiency to test this proposition. Our results suggest that it does not hold and that LEMs—like other low-downpayment mortgage programs—will raise mortgage default rates.

This cost must be weighed against any potential anti-sprawl benefits LEMs may have.

Abstract:

Most benefit-cost analyses of reductions in air pollutants and other pollutants carrying mortality risks rely on estimates of the value of reductions in such risks produced by compensating wage studies, or contingent valuation studies that value risk reductions in the context of transport or job-related accidents. As the authors argue below, these estimates are inappropriate when valuing risk changes produced by environmental programs. The objectives of this paper are to explain why these estimates are inappropriate and to describe an improved approach to valuing reductions in risk of death from environmental programs, especially programs to reduce air pollution. The authors have implemented this approach in a pilot study in Tokyo, Japan. The paper provides estimates of the value of a statistical life based on the pilot study and describes extensions of the approach based on test results.

The preliminary results from the Tokyo pilot indicate that individuals are able to distinguish between different magnitudes of small changes in mortality risks and between the same change in these risks occurring at different times (although the latter has not yet been subjected to an external scope test). Changes to the survey and a big increase in sample size may improve performance on the internal validity tests and the results of the scope tests. Although the current results can only be considered suggestive, if they were to remain after administration of the survey to a larger sample, and subject to some other caveats, they would imply that the VSL's currently used in benefit-cost analyses of environmental policies are significant overestimates.

Abstract: Exposure to pollutants in the Great Lakes Region can have significant effects on human health. Some forms of pollution affect humans directly, through the air we breathe and water we drink. Other forms of pollution affect humans indirectly, for example through consumption of contaminated fish. In this paper the authors describe methods to measure health benefits in monetary and nonmonetary terms in the context of reductions in pollutants as part of a program to improve the environment in the Great Lakes. The paper is meant to be an introduction to this topic for a general audience interested in the Great Lakes.

Abstract: This paper reports the results of policy simulations of environmental and human health externalities arising from the production of electricity. The primary purpose of this paper is to illustrate the Maryland Externalities Screening and Valuation Model, developed for the State of Maryland’s Department of Natural Resources. A secondary purpose is to estimate likely Maryland benefits from Title IV emissions reductions at electric power generation facilities. Sources and scope of benefits, and the potential of policy to achieve specific environmental and human health goals, are suggested by the results. The authors find that expected health benefits from reductions in power plant emissions dominate the estimated benefits of improved recreational visibility and residential visibility. The latter are the only environmental benefits the model is currently equipped to estimate, because of gaps in the science-to-economics literature. The model fully accounts for all significant environmental pathways, so future parameter estimates can be inserted as they are developed. The authors estimate that in 2010 Maryland health benefits will be about $0.7 billion, while recreational visibility benefits (in Shenandoah National Park) will be approximately $21 million (to residents of Virginia and Maryland), and residential visibility benefits, for inhabitants of a city of the size of Washington, DC and similarly affected by reduced urban visibility, will be about $1.2 million. This integrated-assessment model is designed to estimate and report also the tremendous uncertainties in measuring and valuing these effects.

Abstract:

Nitrogen oxide emissions not only affect air quality but have recently been found to be an important source of nitrate pollution in the Chesapeake Bay. This analysis examines the costs, emissions, source-specific and location-specific allocations of NO_X emissions reductions and the ancillary ozone related health benefits under a range of policy scenarios. The paper includes analysis of three separate policies. The first is a detailed analysis of the effect on nitrate loadings to the Bay of command and control policies specified in the Clean Air Act and as part of the OTAG process. The second is a comparison of alternative scenarios for reducing NO_X emissions that meet nitrate loading goals, with or without concern for reducing ozone concentrations and the health effects they cause. The third is a comparison of alternative approaches to allocate NO_X emissions to meet NO_X reduction and ozone exposure goals while capturing the ancillary effect on nitrate loadings. This last analysis focuses on the stake the Bay jurisdictions have in the outcome of negotiations over NO_X trading programs being developed by EPA for reducing ozone in the Eastern U.S. With the primary focus on the Chesapeake Bay jurisdiction, all three analyses integrate the ancillary ozone benefits of policies to reduce nitrate pollution, including examination of how these ancillary benefits change under alternative meteorological episodes, and explore lower cost alternatives to current regulatory programs in both qualitative and quantitative terms.

We find that the Chesapeake Bay benefits from efforts to reduce NO_X emissions to meet the ambient air quality standard for ozone. Airborne NO_X emission reductions slated to occur under the Clean Air Act in the Bay airshed will reduce nitrate loadings to the Bay by about 27 percent of the baseline airborne levels. The additional controls of NO_X contemplated in what we term the OTAG scenario is estimated to result in an additional 20 percent reduction from this baseline. However, the paper's analysis of possible least cost options shows that the costs of obtaining such reductions can be significantly reduced by rearranging the allocation of emissions reductions to take advantage of source-type and locational considerations. In addition, we find that adding consideration of ancillary ozone-related health benefits to the picture does not alter any qualitative conclusions. Quantitatively, unless a link between ozone and mortality risk is assumed, the benefits are too small to affect the cost-saving allocations of NO_X reductions. If the case for such a link can be made, the results change dramatically, with large overall increases in NO_X reductions and a relative shift in controls to non-Bay states and utility sources. These specific effects are sensitive to the source-receptor coefficients linking NO_X to ozone, however.

Our analyses also suggest that the Bay jurisdictions have a stake in the outcome of the NO_X trading debate -- that some trading designs can lead to better outcomes for these jurisdictions than others. Nevertheless, a common feature of cost-savings policies is that they both rearrange emissions reductions and, in the aggregate, reduce emissions less than a command and control system. Thus, some trading regimes result in significantly smaller loadings reductions (up to 25 percent smaller) than the command and control approach.

Abstract:

Transportation authorities have consistently failed to employ economic incentives on major roadways--i.e. time-of-day pricing or "congestion fees"--to internalize the costs of congestion. In principle at least, such tolls can easily be shown to increase social welfare by making motorists pay something closer to the full social costs of their driving decisions. In addition, recent advances in electronics make it possible to implement such fees fairly cheaply and non-intrusively. While these same authorities generally understand and acknowledge the case for using congestion fees, they also claim that their use is politically infeasible because too many motorists would suffer large increases in commuting costs. This is the puzzle: If congestion tolls truly do advance social welfare, why is it so difficult to find a way to implement them? Two common explanations for this difficulty are the following: (i) The public perceives, or politicians fear that they would perceive, such fees simply as tax increases. If so, they might be responsive to an explicit promise to return the money in some way. (ii) Motorists dislike congestion fees because they find them coercive, in that they often have few if any practical alternatives to paying the fee. If so, then a policy option that offers motorists a choice of toll lanes and the more customary free lanes may be more attractive than a policy that policy of tolls on all lanes.

We have completed a survey of Southern California residents designed to test these hypotheses. Unlike most opinion surveys on congestion pricing, our survey was quite explicit about the fate of the collected revenues. For example, we presented respondents with policies that returned a substantial portion of the revenues to the public, either in the form of cash (through reductions in sales taxes and vehicle registration fees or through income tax credits) or in the form of coupons to be used for vehicle emissions equipment repair, transit, and the like. In the past, most surveys have not been explicit about the revenues, or they have stated that revenue use was to be for improved highways, transit, or other public purposes. We find that a promise to offset the imposition of congestion fees by other taxes can result in a 7 percentage point increase in support for congestion pricing policies, and the restriction of congestion pricing to a single lane on a freeway attracts from 9 to 17 percentage points of additional support.

Abstract:

The Congestion Mitigation/Air Quality Program (CMAQ), established in 1991 by the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) to provide about $1 billion per year to fund transportation projects that improve air quality, is intended both to support traditional transportation control measures and to encourage innovation in developing new strategies and technologies for controlling emissions from transportation sources. While the program has indeed encouraged some innovative approaches to local transportation and air quality problems, critics see it as a diversion of funds that could more usefully be devoted to conventional highway improvement projects. The current debate in Congress over the reauthorization of ISTEA and, specifically, the CMAQ provisions, is hampered by the lack of detailed information about the achievements of previous CMAQ projects and a plan for evaluating future projects.

Resolution of this debate could be aided by emphasizing the role of CMAQ projects as natural experiments and developing a plan to conduct them. The purpose of this paper is to outline a strategy of analysis and data collection that will facilitate evaluation of CMAQ projects. This paper argues that the lack of emphasis (in all but the largest projects) on project evaluation can be explained by the public goods nature of information. Because local implementing agencies bear the costs of evaluation, while the benefits are enjoyed primarily by other jurisdictions in planning their transportation and environment projects, too little evaluation is conducted. At present, much of the potential usefulness of CMAQ projects to planners is dissipated because there is little systematic learning. Indeed, a project could succeed as an experiment if learning took place, even if it failed to improve air quality.

This paper examines the kinds of data collected now in CMAQ programs in comparison with the kinds of data that would permit more effective program evaluation, particularly ex post evaluation, i.e., analysis of what actually resulted from the implementation of the individual project. In many cases, data-gathering should concentrate on observable outcomes that can clearly be attributed to the project and yet bear some relationship to air quality or congestion, either established by previous empirical study or by model results. A method is proposed for collecting the requisite data for each of several important types of CMAQ projects. To assure that the data are collected and evaluated will also require changes in the way in which CMAQ is administered, including the dedication of some portion of CMAQ funds for evaluating completed projects. The biggest change may be the need to develop measures of "success" and identify "control cases" against which to judge the success of the experiment.

Abstract: The paper develops a framework to evaluate permits granted to firms under the Environmental Protection Agency's Project XL — with emphasis on the novel air permit granted to the Intel Corporation. We describe the permit, the process that created it, and the types of costs and benefits likely to arise from this type of "facility-specific" regulatory arrangement. Among other things, the paper describes the permit's impact on environmental quality, production costs, transaction costs, and Intel's strategic market position. The paper also considers how an estimate of the costs and benefits — both to Intel and society — might be estimated. While facility-specific regulation typically conjures images of production cost savings as processes are re-engineered and low-cost abatement strategies pursued, the Intel case highlights perhaps a more important source of benefit: flexibility in the form of streamlined permitting. Flexibility in this form allows for accelerated product introductions, with potentially significant benefits to the firm and possibly to society.

Abstract:

Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments initiated a dramatic reduction in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides by electric power plants. This paper presents the results of an integrated assessment of the benefits and costs of the program, using the Tracking and Analysis Framework (TAF) developed for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Although dramatic uncertainties characterize our estimates especially with respect to the benefits of the program, many of which we have modeled explicitly, we find that the benefits can be expected to substantially outweigh the costs of the emission reductions. The lion’s share of benefits result from reduced risk of premature mortality, especially through reduced exposure to sulfates, and these expected benefits measure several times the expected costs of the program. Significant benefits are also estimated for improvements in health morbidity, recreational visibility and residential visibility, each of which measures approximately equal to costs. In contrast, areas that were the focus of attention in the 1980s including effects to soils, forests and aquatic systems still have not been modeled comprehensively, but evidence suggests benefits in these areas to be relatively small, at least with respect to "use values" for the environmental assets that are affected.

Abstract: This paper examines implications for cost-effective allocation of pollution controls when preferences of coalitions organized along regional lines, or according to preferences for air vs. water quality improvements, are accounted for. Results are compared to a base case in which NOx emissions reductions must satisfy only a water quality standard, and total costs are minimized over emissions sources. Relative to base-case result that marginal control costs must be equal across sources, stronger relative preferences for air imply shifting of control toward sources that produce greater ancillary benefits to air quality. Regional differences may require side payments to induce cooperation where benefits are low, but this will not affect how controls themselves should be allocated.

Abstract: The continuing efforts in the 104th Congress to legislate requirements for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and the revised Office of Management and Budget guidelines for the conduct of such assessments during a regulatory rulemaking process highlight the need for a comprehensive examination of the role that CBA can play in agency decision-making. This paper summarizes the state of knowledge regarding CBA and offers suggestions for improvement in its use, especially in the context of environmental regulations.

Abstract:

In this paper we report on the results of a telephone survey conducted in Southern California during August and September 1996. The purpose of the survey was to inform respondents about a set of rather complex pricing policies designed to reduce motor vehicle emissions and to estimate respondent support for those policies. After receiving extensive information about these policies, respondents were polled on whether they would support, i.e., vote for, any or all of these options.

The pollution fee survey elicited support for a plan that levied a fee on vehicles in the region, depending on the vehicle's emissions per mile and on the miles driven. The sample was then split in two, with half the respondents being told that a portion of the revenues would be returned to the public in the form of reductions in motor vehicle fees or sales tax reductions, and half told that these returns would be made in the form of coupons. Nearly 40 percent of respondents agreed to support the base plan (42 percent of those expressing an opinion). More than 50 percent supported the fees with rebates, including support of 54 percent when all the available revenues are returned to the public (57 percent of the sample expressing an opinion). Support for the coupon policy was intermediate between the base and rebate policies, attracting 42 percent of the sample (45 percent of those expressing an opinion).

Statistical analyses were performed on the data to explain the voting patterns observed. Generally, the levels of support were significantly affected by the design features of the plans, such as the size of the fee paid and the rebate, as well as by a host of socio-demographic and perceptual variables, such as ethnicity, age, political affiliation, expected efficacy of the policy, and the degree to which air pollution affects the respondent or his or her family. Examination of these statistical results may be useful in the development of pollution fee programs to present to the public, as well as in the design of public information campaigns and the allocation of marketing resources to win support for these programs.

Abstract: A significant literature has developed to estimate the damages to third parties from new electricity generation technologies. This paper focuses on how such estimates can be profitably used in the present regulatory environment, and in the potential new environment that may result from restructuring in the electricity industry.

Abstract: Several recent studies have mounted major efforts to estimate the social cost of electricity generation. This paper provides an overview of this literature and a focused qualitative and quantitative comparison of the most comprehensive and rigorous of these studies. The paper also provides a synthesis that can help reduce the cost of future applications of these methods.

Abstract: EPA appears likely to tighten the ambient ozone standard, even as many areas of the country are having great difficulties meeting the current standard. This paper offers an analysis of potential regulatory, administrative, and legislative initiatives for reducing the costs of meeting ozone standards. The detailed analysis of these initiatives is organized into six steps: (i) acknowledge mistakes and adapt to new knowledge; (ii) rehabilitate EPA's Title I Program; (iii) build on the best ideas; (iv) clarify and change the Clean Air Act; (v) educate the public; and (vi) fund research. EPA can go a long way to make its programs more efficient and effective without changes in the Clean Air Act; indeed, a number of its current initiatives show promise. But it must do more. Congress can help, too, by giving EPA the statutory guidance and freedom it needs to improve the program.

Abstract: A number of state public utility commissions are using "social costing" methods to consider externalities in electricity resource planning. The most comprehensive and formal method is the use of monetary place-holders in the financial evaluation of new investments and potentially in system dispatch to reflect quantitative estimates of externality values. This approach necessarily must take existing environmental and social regulation as given. Furthermore, regulated utilities face increasing competition from electricity generators outside their service territory who may not be affected by social costing. The lack of universal and uniform social costing places PUC actions soundly in the realm of "second-best policy" and they may have unintended consequences that should be anticipated by regulators. This paper addresses two prominent possibilities: the potential substitution of unregulated supplies of energy services in place of electricity generated by the regulated utility, and the effect social costing may have on the relationship between the regulated price and marginal cost. These issues are considered within a normative model of social welfare maximization, which is applied to three representative hypothetical utility case studies to calibrate a second-best optimal adder to correct for externalities in electricity planning.

Abstract:

Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) has played a large role historically in decisions involving water resource projects and, more recently, in projects having a substantial environmental component. Perhaps no more challenging task for BCA is to apply it to decisions about the cleanup of the Department of Energy's waste sites containing nuclear and other hazardous wastes. Whether BCA is up to the task is unclear. This paper begins to look at this question by first highlighting the development of this approach to place into perspective its ability to capture the major features of evaluating the net benefits of cleaning up DOE waste sites. The second section presents an ethical critique of BCA and counter arguments applicable to the context of cleanup decisions. A third section discusses the role of public participation in BCA's for such site cleanups as a partial, practical response to the ethical critique.

BCA initially was developed to evaluate water resources investments made by federal water agencies in the United States, but no evaluations were made of environmental improvements. Subsequently, BCA branched out to tackle issues involving significant environmental effects, but without attempting to value these effects. More recently, there has been burgeoning interest in estimating the benefits of environmental improvements and in applying these estimates to issues of environmental policy design, the scope of environmental cleanup investments, and the liability of companies for natural resources damaged by oil spills and other activities. BCA has evolved in response to these challenges, as can be seen in its application to the Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor Program and the Alaska pipeline in the 70's, and a host of Regulatory Impact Analyses of programs administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the 80's and 90's.

The expanded use of BCA in environmental decisions has heightened concern amongst philosophers and others about the treatment of discounting and equity. Their central complaint refers to the use of the maximum satisfaction of self interest as a normative (moral) concept, but the issue of intergenerational equity, given the extremely long-lived nature of nuclear wastes, seems the most salient.

While the ethical critique of BCA is shown to be less than compelling, it cannot be entirely dismissed, particularly with respect to the application of this technique to the nuclear waste cleanup issue. One way of shoring up BCA is to embed the analysis in a public participation process.

At this stage, we are not prepared to recommend a specific approach for public involvement but we are convinced that a systematic, open, BCA, where assumptions are clearly stated and methods made as transparent as possible, can contribute to the efficacy and rationality of public involvement and ultimately to increased trust in DOE decisions.

Abstract: We develop a model of household defensive behavior and illness and empirically estimate it using cross-sectional household-level data collected in Jakarta in 1991. We find that several engineering, economic/behavioral and neighborhood-level variables are associated with illness. Among the engineering variables, we find that quantity, in the sense of poor reliability of the water supply, appears to be associated with diarrheal illness. Interruptions in the supply are consistently found to interfere with defensive behavior (washing hands after using the toilet), and to result in higher incidence of diarrhea. Surprisingly, the water sources that supply wealthier households (government-piped water and private wells) have the highest interruption rates, making those households particularly vulnerable to diarrhea.