Improving Comparisons of Global Energy Outlooks
WASHINGTON—The global energy sector is changing rapidly. Each year, multiple long-term energy outlooks, usually projecting 20 to 25 years ahead, are issued by organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the US Energy Information Administration (US EIA), and international energy companies such as ExxonMobil and BP. These outlooks help guide decisionmakers as they seek to understand those changes and how they may affect our world.
However, these outlooks vary widely in their assumptions and methods, making it nearly impossible to directly compare across them. A new report posted today by Resources for the Future (RFF) finds that assumptions about energy content of fossil fuels varied by more than 10 percent in the data examined in this analysis. The authors then update their harmonization methodology—first developed in 2015—which allows decisionmakers to more accurately assess the differences across outlooks.
The authors are RFF President Richard G. Newell; Stuart Iler, a pre-doctoral fellow at Harvard University; and Daniel Raimi, a senior research associate at RFF and lecturer at the University of Michigan.
The study is Global Energy Outlooks Comparison Methods: 2018 Update.
The differences they find occur in primary energy units used, assumed energy content of fossil fuels, assumed efficiency of nuclear and renewable electricity conversion from primary energy, categorization of biofuels, and inclusion (or exclusion) of traditional biomass.
The authors note: “Our identification of important sources of divergence highlights areas where organizations producing outlooks may find opportunities for the identification of common assumptions and data improvement. Enhancing the comparability of outlooks will improve the quality of the dialogue among stakeholders to the benefit of energy decisionmaking worldwide.”
Read the full report: Global Energy Outlooks Comparison Methods: 2018 Update.
Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy.
Unless otherwise stated, the views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. RFF does not take positions on specific legislative proposals.
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