Risk Matrix for Shale Gas Development

Shale gas development raises new environmental and health concerns that are less well-understood than the risks associated with conventional fossil fuel extraction. In addition, concerns traditionally associated with drilling are being raised in areas that have not had to manage these issues until recently. The media have raised the profile of a number of these issues, such as water quality. However, because many of the links between shale gas development and environmental impacts are not well understood, other risks have received little to no attention.

Supported by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, RFF’s Center for Energy Economics and Policy (CEEP) is working to identify how government and industry can responsibly develop shale gas. As a first step, CEEP experts have worked with industry, government, and academic experts to generate a comprehensive set of “impact pathways,” linking the activities associated with the development of a shale gas well to their potential impacts.

About the Matrix

The risk matrix shows how the activities associated with the development of a shale gas well can create burdens that might impact things that people care about, such as groundwater, soil quality, and communities. It identifies the potential risks to be considered when developing a well, examining impacts from widespread drilling activities, or writing regulations. It is important to note that the matrix shows the potential risks. It does not show the impacts that have occurred, but rather those that could plausibly occur under normal operating conditions.

The list of activities was developed in consultation with academic experts, who helped the RFF research team better understand each part of the process. The list of burdens was created using information garnered from visits to shale gas development sites; discussions with various stakeholders, including industry experts, regulatory experts, NGOs, and academics; and reports on the potential impacts of the process. The risk matrix does not make any judgment on the severity or importance of each burden or impact—something that will be addressed in CEEP's expert and public surveys on this topic.​

It is important to note that this matrix does not take into account accidents or other extreme events, which could potentially occur, but rather those that may occur from routine operations. Furthermore, this matrix does not extend to the final impacts of each burden outlined. Each may have final impacts on human health, markets, ecosystems, climate change, and/or quality of life; however, these are not addressed here.

Contact CEEP

For more information about CEEP's Risk Matrix for Shale Gas Development, contact Alan Krupnick​, RFF Senior Fellow and Director of CEEP, at krupnick@rff.org.

Site Development and Drilling Preparation
After locating a site for shale gas development, the area must be excavated and prepared for drilling. Preparation activity also often includes leveling of the site.

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Drilling Activities 
Drilling begins by boring a single well shaft vertically into the desired formation. One or more lateral wells are then drilled from the end of the vertical wellbore, angling to run horizontally through the shale formation.

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Fracturing and Completion 
During hydraulic fracturing (one component of the completion process), a mix of sand, water, and additives are pumped into the wellbore at very high pressure to fracture the shale rock.

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Well Operation and Production 
In this stage, shale gas is being brought up from the ground through the borehole and separated from other gases and liquids before being sent to pipelines. 

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Fracturing Fluids, Flowback, and Produced Water Storage and Disposal 
Fracturing a well can require several million gallons of water. Storing, treating, and disposing of the large amounts of freshwater, produced water, and flowback water are key activities in this stage.

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Other Activities 
Once a well is in production, well workovers may be necessary to perform maintenance or remedial treatments, including removing production tubing. At the end of a well’s lifetime, preparing it to be permanently abandoned includes plugging and integrity testing. Consideration is also given here to upstream activities that supply inputs to the development process, and downstream activities that move the gas to markets.​

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