Past Conference

Expert Judgment: Promises and Pitfalls Agenda

Mar 13, 2004 - Mar 14, 2004
Webcast

About the Event

Expert Judgment: Promises and Pitfalls

March 13 Agenda

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Welcome and Introduction

Phil Sharp, President, Resources for the Future
web bio

Kate Probst, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
web bio

 

Keynote Address

George Gray
Assistant Administrator, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA

Taking Uncertainty Seriously

 

Why Quantify Uncertainty?

M. Granger Morgan
Head and Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University Link to Presentation Slides

Regulation Under Uncertainty

 

 

 
Roger Cooke
web bio
Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow in Risk Analysis, Resources for the Future
Link to Presentation SlidesExpert Judgment: Conceptions, Misconceptions and Fallacies
 
 
 
 
 
 

Expert Judgment: Recent Applications

William AspinallLink to Presentation Slides
web bio
Aspinall & Associates
Vesuvio, Dams, and SARS


 
 
 
 
M. Granger Morgan
Head and Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University

Link to Presentation Slides

Climate Change

 

 

 

Expert Judgment for PM2.5

John Evans
Senior Lecturer on Environmental Science, Harvard Center for Risk AnalysisLink to Presentation Slides

Harvard Kuwait Project


 

 

 
Katherine D. Walker
web bio
Senior Consultant, Industrial Economics, Inc.
Link to Presentation SlidesU.S. EPA PM Expert Judgment Project

 
 
 
 
 
 

Round Table on Practical Issues

  • When is use of expert judgment warranted?
  • What is a typical budget?
  • How do you select experts? How many?
  • Do you pay experts?
  • What is your policy regarding expert identities?
  • Do you use group or individual assessments?
  • Do you use experts for preference rankings?

 

 

Challenges for Policymakers and Practitioners: Uncertainty and the Regulatory Process

Bob Hetes, Senior Advisor for Regulatory Support, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA
web bio Link to Presentation Slides

Challenges for Policy Makers and Practitioners: Uncertainty, Expert Judgment, and the Regulatory Process


 

 

Alan Krupnick, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
web bioLink to Presentation Slides

Are Decisionmakers at Home on the Range? Communicating Uncertainties in Regulatory Impact Analyses