Working Paper

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: Evidence from China

Apr 18, 2014 | Shuai Chen, Xiaoguang Chen, Jintao Xu

This was created in partnership with Environment for Development .


We estimate the link between corn and soybean yields and weather in China, while controlling for other variables that could affect crop yields, such as socioeconomic and climate adaptation variables. We find that: (i) there are nonlinear and asymmetric relationships between corn and soybean yields and weather variables; (ii) expansion of corn and soybean production to land types not previously used for these two crops had detrimental effects on average yields for both crops; (iii) climate change led to a net economic loss of about $200 million to China’s corn and soybean sectors in the past decade; (iv) corn and soybean yields are projected to decline by 4-14% and 8-21% by 2100.