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Roger M. Cooke
Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow
202-328-5127
cooke@rff.org
RESEARCH TOPICS
 
PROFILE
 
Roger Cooke joined Resources for the Future in September 2005 as the first appointee to the Chauncey Starr Chair in Risk Analysis. His research has widely influenced risk assessment methodology, particularly in the areas of expert judgment and uncertainty analysis. He is recognized as one of the world's leading authorities on mathematical modeling of risk and uncertainty. His recent research has encompassed health risks from oil fires in Kuwait following the first Gulf War, chemical weapons disposal, nuclear risk, nitrogen oxide emissions, and microbiological risk. His current research interests include structured expert judgment methodologies and uncertainty analysis, and his work focuses on the implementation of uncertainty analysis in policy-related decisionmaking.  
Featured Publications
Uncertainty Analysis Comes to Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change...and Conversely
Roger M. Cooke
Climatic Change | April 2013 | Vol. 117, Issue 3 | 467-479
 
Fat-Tailed Distributions: Data, Diagnostics, and Dependence
Roger M. Cooke, Daan Nieboer, Jolanta Misiewicz
RFF Discussion Paper 11-19-REV | September 2011
 
The Unholy Trinity: Fat Tails, Tail Dependence, and Micro-Correlations
Carolyn Kousky, Roger M. Cooke
RFF Discussion Paper 09-36-REV | November 2009
 
Model uncertainty in economic impacts of climate change: Bernoulli versus Lotka Volterra dynamics
Roger M. cooke
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management | January 2013 | Vol. 9, Issue 1 | pp. 2-6
 
The Limits of Securitization: Micro-correlations, Fat Tails and Tail Dependence
C. Kousky and R.M. Cooke
Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting: Volume I | Klaus Boecker (ed) | London: Risk Books | 2011
 
View All Related Publications
JOURNAL ARTICLES
Uncertainty Analysis Comes to Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change...and Conversely
Roger M. Cooke
Climatic Change | April 2013 | Vol. 117, Issue 3 | 467-479
 
Model uncertainty in economic impacts of climate change: Bernoulli versus Lotka Volterra dynamics
Roger M. cooke
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management | January 2013 | Vol. 9, Issue 1 | pp. 2-6
 
Explaining the Failure to Insure Catastrophic Risks
Kousky, C. and R. Cooke
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice | Vol. 37, No. 2 | 206-227
 
“Quantifying information security risks using expert judgment elicitation” Computers and Operations Research Journal , 39, (2012) 774?784.
Julie J.C.H. Ryan , Thomas A. Mazzuchi , Daniel J. Ryan, Juliana Lopez de la Cruz, Cooke, R.M.
Computers and Operations Research Journa | 39 | 774?784
 
Risk Premia and the Social Cost of Carbon: A Review
Kousky, C., Kopp, R. E., and R. M. Cooke
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal | Vol. 5, 2011-21
 
Managing Dependencies in Forest Offset Projects: Toward a More Complete Evaluation of Reversal Risk
David M. Cooley, Christopher S. Galik, Thomas P. Holmes, Carolyn Kousky, Roger M. Cooke
Mitigation and Adaptation of Strategies for Global Change | 2012 | Vol. 17, No. 1 | pp. 17-24
 
Techniques for generic probabilistic inversion
Du C., Kurowicka D., and Cooke R.M.
Comp. Stat. & Data Analysis | 2006 | 50 | pp. 1164-1187
 
Completion Problem with Partial correlation Vines
Kurowicka D., Cooke R.M.
Linear Algebra and its Applications | 2006 | Vol. 418, No. 1 | pp. 188-200
 
Competing Risk and the Cox proportional hazard model
Cooke, R.M. and Morales, O.
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference | 2006 | Vol. 136, No. 5 | pp. 1621-1637
 
Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines
Cooke, R.M. Nauta. M., Havelaar, A.H. and van der Fels, H.J.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 2006 | 91 | pp. 1367-1372
 
A Structured Expert Judgement Study For AModel Of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler ChickenProcessing
Van der Fels-Klerx, H.J., Cooke, R.M., Nauta, M.J., Goossens,L.H.J., Havelaar, A.H.
Risk Analysis | forthcoming
 
A Practical Model of Heineken's Bottle Filling Line with Dependent Failures
Cooke, R.M. Bosma, A. and Harte, F.
European Journal of Operational Research | July 16, 2005 | Vol. 164, Issue 2, | pp. 491-504
 
Ethics and Choosing Appropriate Means to an End: Problems with Coal Mine and Nuclear Workplace Safety
Shrader-Frechette, K. and Cooke, R.M.
Risk Analysis | 2004 | Vol. 24, No. 1 | pp. 147-156
 
Expert Judgement Elicitation for Risk Assessments of Critical Infrastructures
Cooke, R.M. and Goossens L.H.G.
Journal of Risk Research | 2004 | Vol. 7, Issue 6 | pp. 643-657
 
The Anatomy of the Squizzle - The Role ofOperational Definitions in Science
Cooke, R.M.
Reliability Engineering | 2004 | 85 | pp. 313-319
 
A Parameterization of Positive Definite Matrices in Terms of Partial Correlation Vines
D. Kurowicka & R.M. Cooke
Linear Algebra and its Application (book title) | 2003 | 372 | pp. 225-251
 
Linearization of Local Probabilistic Sensitivity Via Sample Re-weighting
R.M. Cooke, D. Kurowicka, I. Meilijson
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 2003 | 79 | pp. 131-137
 
Book Review: Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks
Roger M. Cooke
Fuzzy Sets and Systems | 2003 | 133(2) | pp. 267-268
 
Value of Information Based Design of Control Software
J.G. Norstrom, R.M. Cooke, T. Bedford
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 2002 | 77 | pp. 291-300
 
Vines - A New Graphical Model for Dependent Random Variables
T.J. Bedford & R.M. Cooke
Annals of Statistics | August 2002 | Vol. 30, No.4
 
Reliability Data Bases in Perspective
R.M. Cooke & T.J. Bedford
IEEE Trans. Reliab. | 2002 | Vol. 51, No. 3 | pp. 294-311
 
Simple Fractions and Linear Decomposition of Some Convolutions of Measures
Jolanta K. Misiewicz and Roger Cooke
Probability and Statistics | 2001 | 21 | pp. 149-157
 
The Risk of Groundlings Fatalities from Unintentional Airplane Crashes
K.M. Thompson, R.F. Rabouw and R.M. Cooke
Risk analysis | 2001 | Vol. 21, No. 6 | pp. 1025-1037
 
Information Fusion in the Context of Stock Index Prediction
Siekmann S., R. Kruse, J. Gebhardt, P. Overbeek, R.M. Cooke
International Journal of Intelligent Systems | 2001 | Vol. 16, No. 11 | pp. 1285-1298
 
Self-conditional Probabilities and Probabilistic Interpretations of Belief Functions
Cooke R.M., P. Smets
Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence | 2001 | 32 | pp. 269-285
 
Probability Density Decomposition for Conditionally Dependent Random Variables Modelled by Vines
Bedford, T.J. and Cooke, R.M.
Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence | 2001 | Vol. 32, Nos. 1-4 | pp. 245-268
 
Characterizations of Scale Mixtures of Gamma Processes in Termsof Sufficiency and Isotropy
J.M. van Noortwijk, R.M. Cooke and J.K. Misiewicz
Journal of Mathematical Sciences | 2000 | Vol. 99, No. 4 | pp. 1469-1475
 
Procedures Guide for Structured Expert Judgement in Accidents Consequence Modelling
R.M. Cooke and L.H.J. Goossens
Radiation Protection Dosimetry | 2000 | Vol. 90, No. 3 | pp. 303-311
 
Isotropic Sequence of Random Variables and Stochastic Rescaling
J.K. Misiewicz and R.M.Cooke
Theoretical Probability and Mathematical Statistics | 2000 | 20 | pp. 151-157
 
Uncertainty in Compartmental Models for Hazardous Materials - A Case Study
B.C.P. Kraan, R.M. Cooke
Journal of Hazardous Materials | 2000 | 71 | pp. 253-268
 
Generalized Graphical Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis
Cooke R.M. and Van Noordwijk J.M.
Bashkir Ecological Journal, (Special Issue) | 2000 | Vol. 1, No. 8 | pp. 54-57
 
Processing Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Modelling
B.C.P. Kraan and R.M. Cooke
Radiation Protection Dosimetry | 2000 | Vol. 90, No. 3
 
Optimal Maintenance Decisions for Dikes
Lennaert J.P. Speijker, Jan. M. van Noortwijk, Matthijs Kok,Roger M. Cooke
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Science | 2000 | Vol. 14 | pp. 101-121
 
A New Generic Model for Applying MAUT
Cooke, R.M., Bedford, T.
European Journal of Operational Research | 1999 | 118 | pp. 589-604
 
Expert Judgement and Lethal Toxicity of Inhaled Chemicals
Goossens, L.H.J., Cooke, R., Woudenberg, F. and van der Torn, P.
Journal of Risk Research | 1998 | Vol. 1 (2) | pp. 117-133
 
Local Probabilistic Sensitivity Measures for Comparing FORM and Monte Carlo Calculations Illustrated with Dike Ring Reliability Calculations
Cooke, R.M., Noortwijk, J.M. van
Computer Physics Communications | 1998 | 115 | pp. 1-12
 
Expert Judgement and Lethal Toxicity of Inhaled Chemicals
Goossens, L.H.J., Cooke, R., Woudenberg, F. and van der Torn, P.
Journal of Risk Research | 1998 | Vol. 1 (2) | pp. 117-133
 
Failure Frequency of Underground Gas Pipelines
Cooke, R.M. & Jager, E.
In Risk Analysis | 1998 | Vol. 18, No. 4 | pp. 511-527
 
Expert Judgement and Hazard Assessments
Louis Goossens and R.M. Cooke
MEG Bulletin Issue | March 1997 | 2 | p. 3
 
Reliability Methods as Management Tools: Dependence Modelling and Partial Missions Success
Bedford T, R.M. Cooke
Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety | 1997 | Vol. 58 | pp. 173-180
 
Applications of Some Risk Assessment Techniques: Formal Expert Judgement and Accident Sequence Precursors
Goossens, L.H.J., R.M. Cooke,
Safety Science | 1997 | Vol. 26, No. 1/2 | pp. 35-47
 
Uncertainty Modeling: Examples and Issues
Cooke, R.M.
Safety Science | 1997 | Vol. 26, No. 12 | pp. 49-60
 
Concepts for Measuring Maintenance Performance and Methods for Analysing Competing Failure Modes
Cooke, R.M. & Paulsen, J.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1997 | Vol. 55, No. 2 | pp. 135-141
 
The Design of Reliability Data Bases, Part II:Competing Risk and Data Compression
Cooke, R.M.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 | Vol. 51, No. 2 | pp. 209-223
 
Post-Processing Techniques for the Joint CEC/USNRC Uncertainty Analysis of Accident Consequence Codes
Kraan, B., and Cooke, R.
Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation | 1996 | Vol. 57, Nos. 1-4 | pp. 243-261
 
Guest Editorial
Cooke, R.M.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 | Vol. 51, No. 2 | p. 123
 
The Design of Reliability Data Bases, Part I: Reviewof Standard Design Concepts
Cooke, R.M.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 | Vol. 51, No. 2 | pp. 137-146
 
The Design of Reliability Data Bases, Part II:Competing Risk and Data Compression
Cooke, R.M.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 | Vol. 51, No. 2 | pp. 209-223
 
Comparative Evaluation of Maintenance Performance Using Sub-survival Functions
Paulsen, J., Cooke, R., and Nyman, R.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996
 
Probit Relations of Hazardous Substances through Formal ExpertJudgement
Goossens, L.H.J., Cooke, R.M., Woudenberg, F., and van der Torn,P.
Loss Prevention and Safety Promotion in the Process Industries | 1995 | Vol. II | pp. 173-182
 
Coherent Combination of Experts' Opinions:Discussion
Cooke, R.M.
Test | 1995 | Vol. 4, No. 2 | p. 285
 
A Bayesian Failure Model Based on Isotropic Deterioration
v. Noortwijk, J.M., Cooke, R.M., and Kok, M.
European Journal of Operational Research | 1995 | 82 | pp. 270-282
 
Parameter Fitting for Uncertain Models: ModellingUncertainty in Small Models
Cooke, R.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1994 | Vol. 44 | pp. 89-102
 
Uncertainty in Dispersion and Deposition in AccidentConsequence Modeling Assessed with Performance-Based Expert Judgement
Cooke, R.M.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1994 | 44 | pp. 35-46
 
The Total Time on Test Statistic and Age-DependentCensoring
Cooke, R.M.
Statistics & Probability Letters | 1993 | 18 | pp. 307-312
 
Optimal Inspection Sequence in Fault Diagnosis
Wang, X. and Cooke, R.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1992 | 37 | pp. 206-210
 
The Use of Expert Judgement in Risk Assessment
French, S., Cooke R., and Wiper, M.
Bulletin of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications | March 1991 | Vol. 27, No. 3 | pp. 36-40
 
Expert Opinion in Project Management
Bhola, B., Cooke, R., Blaauw, H., and Kok, M.
European Journal of Operations Research | 1991 | 57 | pp. 1-8
 
Scenario Analysis National Electricity Supply
Lootsma, F., Boonekamp, P., Cooke, R.M., v. Oostvoorn, F.
De Ingenieur, (in Dutch) | October 1989 | Number 10 | pp. 19-23
 
The Accident Sequence Precursor Methodology for the Post-Seveso Era in Europe
Cooke, R.M. and Goossens, L.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1989 | 27 | pp. 117-130
 
Entropy and Experts
Cooke, R.M.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1989 | 26
 
Optimization in Risk Management
Cooke, R.M. and Pinter, J.
Civil Engineering Systems | 1989 | pp. 122-128
 
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Cooke, R.M.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1988 | 23 | pp. 227-233
 
Calibration and Information in Expert Resolution
Cooke, R.M., Mendel, M., Thijs, W.
Automatica | 1988 | 24, 1
 
Problems with Empirical Bayes
Cooke, R.M.
Risk Analysis | 1986 | Vol. 6, No. 3 | pp. 269-272
 
Monte Carlo Sampling For Generalized Knowledge Dependence, with Application to Human Reliability
Cooke, R.M., Waij, R.,
Risk Analysis | 1986 | Vol. 6, No. 3 | pp. 335-343
 
Conceptual Fallacies in Subjective Probability
Cooke, R.M.
Topoi | 1986 | 5 | pp. 21-28
 
An Elementary Proof of Gleason's Theorem
Cooke, R.M., Keane, M., and Moran, W.
Mathem. Proc. Camb. Phil. Soc. | 1985 | 98 | pp. 117-128
 
Price-Anderson Revisited
Cooke, R.M.
Risk Analysis | September 1984 | Vol. 4, No. 3 | p. 155
 
Reactions
Cooke, R.M.
De Ingenieur | August 1984 | No. 7/8 | pp. 11-13
 
The Credibility of Risk Analysis
Cooke, R.M.
De Ingenieur, (in Dutch) | June 6, 1984 | No. 6 | pp. 52-53
 
A Method of Weighing Qualitative Preference Axioms in Subjective Probability
Cooke, R.M., and Draaisma, H.
Journal of Mathematical Psychology | 1984 | Vol. 28 | pp. 436-477
 
A Result in Renyi's Conditional Probability TheoryWith Application to Subjective Probability
Cooke, R.M.,
Journal of Philosophical Logic | May 1983 | pp. 19-32
 
The Representation of Takeuti's Operator
Cooke, R.M., and van Lambalgen, M.
Studia Logica | 1983 | No. 4 | pp. 407-415
 
Risk Assessment and Rational Decision Theory
Cooke, R.M.
Dialectica | 1982 | pp. 329-35
 
A Paradox in Hempel's Criterion of MaximalSpecificity
Cooke, R.M.
Philosophy of Science | 1981 | Vol. 48, No. 2 | pp. 327-328
 
Quantum Logic
Cooke, R.M. and Hilgevoord, J.
Kennis en Methode, (in Dutch) | 1981 | 5, No. 4
 
A Trivialization of Nagel's Definition of Explanation for Statistical Laws
Cooke, R.M.
Philosophy of Science | 1980 | 47 | pp. 644-645
 
The Algebra of Physical Magnitudes
Cooke, R.M. and Hilgevoord, J.
Foundations of Physics | 1980 | Vol. 10, No. 5/6 | pp. 363-373
 
The Friedman-Putnam Realism
Cooke, R.M.,
Epistemological Letters | October 1979 | pp. 37-40
 
Correspondence, Equivalence and Completeness
Cooke, R.M. and Hilgevoord, J.
Epistemological Letters | March 1979 | pp. 42-54
 
The Objective Content of Classical Particle Mechanics
Cooke, R.M.
Filosofische Reeks, Universiteit van Amsterdam | 1977
 
  
NEWS
Study measures how well Asian carp prevention effort will work
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
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