Biography
Roger Cooke joined Resources for the Future in September 2005 as the first appointee to the Chauncey Starr Chair in Risk Analysis. His research has widely influenced risk assessment methodology, particularly in the areas of expert judgment and uncertainty analysis. He is recognized as one of the world's leading authorities on mathematical modeling of risk and uncertainty. His recent research has encompassed health risks from oil fires in Kuwait following the first Gulf War, chemical weapons disposal, nuclear risk, nitrogen oxide emissions, and microbiological risk. His current research interests include structured expert judgment methodologies and uncertainty analysis, and his work focuses on the implementation of uncertainty analysis in policy-related decisionmaking.
Prior to joining RFF, Cooke was professor of applied decision theory at the Department of Mathematics at Delft University of Technology in The Netherlands. He was on the faculty at Delft for more than 25 years and while there launched a Risk and Environmental Modeling master's program. (Selected publications by Cooke are available for download from the Delft University of Technology website.)
Cooke has served as a consultant to the Japanese governmenton disposal of abandoned World War II chemical weapons in China and to the Swedish Nuclear Inspectorate on reliability of piping in nuclear power plants. He also has consulted with the Dutch National Aeronautics Laboratory, the Dutch Gasunie, the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Milieu, Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the German VGB Powertech Central Databank.
B.A. Yale University, 1968 (Philosophy and Mathematics).
Ph.D. Yale University, 1974 (Philosophy and Mathematics).
Professional Experience
Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future, 2005.
Professor Applied Decision Theory, Delft University of Technology, 1993 (Dept. of Mathematics).
Associate Professor, Delft University of Technology, 1987 (Dept. of Mathematics).
Assistant Professor, Delft University of Technology, 1979 (Dept. of Philosophy).
Assistant Professor, University of Amsterdam, 1975 (Dept. of Philosophy).
Assistant Professor, Yale University, 1974 (Dept. of Philosophy).
Teaching assistant, Yale University, 1972 (Dept. of Philosophy).
Journal Articles
Techniques for generic probabilistic inversion Du C., Kurowicka D., and Cooke R.M. Comp. Stat. & Data Analysis | 2006 | 50 | pp. 1164-1187
Completion Problem with Partial correlation Vines Kurowicka D., Cooke R.M. Linear Algebra and its Applications | 2006 | Vol. 418, No. 1 | pp. 188-200
Competing Risk and the Cox proportional hazard model Cooke, R.M. and Morales, O. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference | 2006 | Vol. 136, No. 5 | pp. 1621-1637
Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines Cooke, R.M. Nauta. M., Havelaar, A.H. and van der Fels, H.J. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 2006 | 91 | pp. 1367-1372
A Structured Expert Judgement Study For A
Model Of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler Chicken
Processing Van der Fels-Klerx, H.J., Cooke, R.M., Nauta, M.J., Goossens,
L.H.J., Havelaar, A.H. Risk Analysis | forthcoming (special issue on Microbial Risk)
A Practical Model of Heineken's Bottle Filling Line with Dependent Failures
Cooke, R.M. Bosma, A. and Härte, F. European Journal of Operational Research | July 16, 2005 | Vol. 164, Issue 2, | pp. 491-504
Ethics and Choosing Appropriate Means to an End: Problems with Coal Mine and Nuclear Workplace Safety
Shrader-Frechette, K. and Cooke, R.M. Risk Analysis | 2004 | Vol. 24, No. 1 | pp. 147-156
Expert Judgement Elicitation for Risk Assessments of Critical Infrastructures
Cooke, R.M. and Goossens L.H.G. Journal of Risk Research | 2004 | Vol. 7, Issue 6 | pp. 643-657 ISSN: 1366-9877
The Anatomy of the Squizzle - The Role of
Operational Definitions in Science Cooke, R.M. Reliability Engineering | 2004 | 85 | pp. 313-319
A Parameterization of Positive Definite Matrices in Terms of Partial Correlation Vines
D. Kurowicka & R.M. Cooke Linear Algebra and its Application (book title) | 2003 | 372 | pp. 225-251 Published by Elsevier Inc.
doi:10.1016/S0024-3795(03)00507-X
Linearization of Local Probabilistic Sensitivity Via Sample Re-weighting
R.M. Cooke, D. Kurowicka, I. Meilijson Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 2003 | 79 | pp. 131-137 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
PII: S0951-8320(02)00223-5.
Book Review: "Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks"
Roger M. Cooke Fuzzy Sets and Systems | 2003 | 133(2) | pp. 267-268 Elsevier
ISBN 0-8493-1087-3
Value of Information Based Design of Control Software J.G. Norstrom, R.M. Cooke, T. Bedford Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 2002 | 77 | pp. 291-300 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
PII: S09 1-8320(02)00062-5
Vines - A New Graphical Model for Dependent Random Variables
T.J. Bedford & R.M. Cooke Annals of Statistics | August 2002 | Vol. 30, No.4
Reliability Data Bases in Perspective R.M. Cooke & T.J. Bedford IEEE Trans. Reliab. | 2002 | Vol. 51, No. 3 | pp. 294-311
Simple Fractions and Linear Decomposition of Some Convolutions of Measures
Jolanta K. Misiewicz and Roger Cooke Probability and Statistics | 2001 | 21 | pp. 149-157
The Risk of Groundlings Fatalities from Unintentional Airplane Crashes
K.M. Thompson, R.F. Rabouw and R.M. Cooke Risk analysis | 2001 | Vol. 21, No. 6 | pp. 1025-1037 ISSN: 0272-4332
Information Fusion in the Context of Stock Index Prediction
Siekmann S., R. Kruse, J. Gebhardt, P. Overbeek, R.M. Cooke International Journal of Intelligent Systems | 2001 | Vol. 16, No. 11 | pp. 1285-1298 I. Bloch, A. Hunter (eds.)
ISNN: 0884-8173.
Self-conditional Probabilities and Probabilistic Interpretations of Belief Functions Cooke R.M., P. Smets Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence | 2001 | 32 | pp. 269-285 ISSN: 1012-2443
Probability Density Decomposition for Conditionally Dependent Random Variables Modelled by Vines
Bedford, T.J. and Cooke, R.M. Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence | 2001 | Vol. 32, Nos. 1-4 | pp. 245-268 ISSN: 1012 2443
Procedures Guide for Structured Expert Judgement in Accidents Consequence Modelling
R.M. Cooke and L.H.J. Goossens Radiation Protection Dosimetry | 2000 | Vol. 90, No. 3 | pp. 303-311 ISBN: 1- 870965-64-7
Characterizations of Scale Mixtures of Gamma Processes in Terms
of Sufficiency and Isotropy
J.M. van Noortwijk, R.M. Cooke and J.K. Misiewicz Journal of Mathematical Sciences | 2000 | Vol. 99, No. 4 | pp. 1469-1475 1072-3374/00/9904-1469
Procedures Guide for Structured Expert Judgement in Accidents Consequence Modelling
R.M. Cooke and L.H.J. Goossens Radiation Protection Dosimetry | 2000 | Vol. 90, No. 3 | pp. 303-311 ISBN: 1- 870965-64-7
Optimal Maintenance Decisions for Dikes
Lennaert J.P. Speijker, Jan. M. van Noortwijk, Matthijs Kok,
Roger M. Cooke Probability in the Engineering and Informational Science | 2000 | Vol. 14 | pp. 101-121 Cambridge University Press, 0269-9648/00.
Isotropic Sequence of Random Variables and Stochastic Rescaling
J.K. Misiewicz and R.M.Cooke Theoretical Probability and Mathematical Statistics | 2000 | 20 | pp. 151-157 ISSN:0868-6904
Uncertainty in Compartmental Models for Hazardous Materials - A Case Study
B.C.P. Kraan, R.M. Cooke Journal of Hazardous Materials | 2000 | 71 | pp. 253-268 Elsevier Science,
BV.ISSN: 0304-3894.
Generalized Graphical Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Cooke R.M. and Van Noordwijk J.M. Bashkir Ecological Journal, (Special Issue) | 2000 | Vol. 1, No. 8 | pp. 54-57
A New Generic Model for Applying MAUT
Cooke, R.M., Bedford, T. European Journal of Operational Research | 1999 | 118 | pp. 589-604
Expert Judgement and Lethal Toxicity of Inhaled Chemicals Goossens, L.H.J., Cooke, R., Woudenberg, F. and van der Torn, P. Journal of Risk Research | 1998 | Vol. 1 (2) | pp. 117-133
Expert Judgement and Lethal Toxicity of Inhaled Chemicals Goossens, L.H.J., Cooke, R., Woudenberg, F. and van der Torn, P. Journal of Risk Research | 1998 | Vol. 1 (2) | pp. 117-133
Failure Frequency of Underground Gas Pipelines
Cooke, R.M. & Jager, E. In Risk Analysis | 1998 | Vol. 18, No. 4 | pp. 511-527
Local Probabilistic Sensitivity Measures for Comparing FORM and Monte Carlo Calculations Illustrated with Dike Ring Reliability Calculations Cooke, R.M., Noortwijk, J.M. van Computer Physics Communications | 1998 | 115 | pp. 1-12
Expert Judgement and Hazard Assessments
Louis Goossens and R.M. Cooke MEG Bulletin Issue | March 1997 | 2 | p. 3 Brussels
Reliability Methods as Management Tools: Dependence Modelling and Partial Missions Success
Bedford T, R.M. Cooke Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety | 1997 | Vol. 58 | pp. 173-180 ISSN: 0951-8320
Applications of Some Risk Assessment Techniques: Formal Expert Judgement and Accident Sequence Precursors
Goossens, L.H.J., R.M. Cooke, Safety Science | 1997 | Vol. 26, No. 1/2 | pp. 35-47
Uncertainty Modeling: Examples and Issues
Cooke, R.M. Safety Science | 1997 | Vol. 26, No. 12 | pp. 49-60
Concepts for Measuring Maintenance Performance and Methods for Analysing Competing Failure Modes
Cooke, R.M. & Paulsen, J. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1997 | Vol. 55, No. 2 | pp. 135-141 Selected from Proceedings ESREL 94, 9th
International Conference Reliability and Maintainability 5/30/94.
The Design of Reliability Data Bases, Part II:
Competing Risk and Data Compression
Cooke, R.M. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 | Vol. 51, No. 2 | pp. 209-223
Guest Editorial Cooke, R.M. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 | Vol. 51, No. 2 | p. 123
The Design of Reliability Data Bases, Part I: Review
of Standard Design Concepts Cooke, R.M. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 | Vol. 51, No. 2 | pp. 137-146
The Design of Reliability Data Bases, Part II:
Competing Risk and Data Compression
Cooke, R.M. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 | Vol. 51, No. 2 | pp. 209-223
Comparative Evaluation of Maintenance Performance Using Sub-survival Functions
Paulsen, J., Cooke, R., and Nyman, R. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1996 Selected from Proceedings ESREL 95. 10th International Conference on Reliability and Maintainabilities, Bournemouth, June
1995.
Post-Processing Techniques for the Joint CEC/USNRC Uncertainty Analysis of Accident Consequence Codes
Kraan, B., and Cooke, R. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation | 1996 | Vol. 57, Nos. 1-4 | pp. 243-261
Probit Relations of Hazardous Substances through Formal Expert
Judgement
Goossens, L.H.J., Cooke, R.M., Woudenberg, F., and van der Torn,
P. Loss Prevention and Safety Promotion in the Process Industries | 1995 | Vol. II | pp. 173-182 Elsevier Science B.V.
Coherent Combination of Experts' Opinions:
Discussion
Cooke, R.M. Test | 1995 | Vol. 4, No. 2 | p. 285
A Bayesian Failure Model Based on Isotropic Deterioration
v. Noortwijk, J.M., Cooke, R.M., and Kok, M. European Journal of Operational Research | 1995 | 82 | pp. 270-282
Parameter Fitting for Uncertain Models: Modelling
Uncertainty in Small Models
Cooke, R. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1994 | Vol. 44 | pp. 89-102
Uncertainty in Dispersion and Deposition in Accident
Consequence Modeling Assessed with Performance-Based Expert Judgement
Cooke, R.M. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1994 | 44 | pp. 35-46
The Total Time on Test Statistic and Age-Dependent
Censoring
Cooke, R.M. Statistics & Probability Letters | 1993 | 18 | pp. 307-312
Optimal Inspection Sequence in Fault Diagnosis
Wang, X. and Cooke, R. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1992 | 37 | pp. 206-210
The Use of Expert Judgement in Risk Assessment
French, S., Cooke R., and Wiper, M. Bulletin of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications | March 1991 | Vol. 27, No. 3 | pp. 36-40 also published in Bayesian Methods in Reliability (eds. M. Newby and P. Sander) pp. 119-134.
Expert Opinion in Project Management
Bhola, B., Cooke, R., Blaauw, H., and Kok, M. European Journal of Operations Research | 1991 | 57 | pp. 1-8
Scenario Analysis National Electricity Supply
Lootsma, F., Boonekamp, P., Cooke, R.M., v. Oostvoorn, F. De Ingenieur, (in Dutch) | October 1989 | Number 10 | pp. 19-23
The Accident Sequence Precursor Methodology for the Post-Seveso Era in Europe
Cooke, R.M. and Goossens, L. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1989 | 27 | pp. 117-130
Entropy and Experts
Cooke, R.M. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1989 | 26
Optimization in Risk Management
Cooke, R.M. and Pinter, J. Civil Engineering Systems | 1989 | pp. 122-128
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Cooke, R.M. Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 1988 | 23 | pp. 227-233
Calibration and Information in Expert Resolution
Cooke, R.M., Mendel, M., Thijs, W. Automatica | 1988 | 24, 1 8-87-94
Problems with Empirical Bayes
Cooke, R.M. Risk Analysis | 1986 | Vol. 6, No. 3 | pp. 269-272
Monte Carlo Sampling For Generalized Knowledge Dependence, with Application to Human Reliability
Cooke, R.M., Waij, R., Risk Analysis | 1986 | Vol. 6, No. 3 | pp. 335-343
Conceptual Fallacies in Subjective Probability
Cooke, R.M. Topoi | 1986 | 5 | pp. 21-28
An Elementary Proof of Gleason's Theorem
Cooke, R.M., Keane, M., and Moran, W. Mathem. Proc. Camb. Phil. Soc. | 1985 | 98 | pp. 117-128
Price-Anderson Revisited
Cooke, R.M. Risk Analysis | September 1984 | Vol. 4, No. 3 | p. 155
Reactions Cooke, R.M. De Ingenieur | August 1984 | No. 7/8 | pp. 11-13
The Credibility of Risk Analysis Cooke, R.M. De Ingenieur, (in Dutch) | June 6, 1984 | No. 6 | pp. 52-53
A Method of Weighing Qualitative Preference Axioms in Subjective Probability
Cooke, R.M., and Draaisma, H. Journal of Mathematical Psychology | 1984 | Vol. 28 | pp. 436-477
A Result in Renyi's Conditional Probability Theory
With Application to Subjective Probability
Cooke, R.M., Journal of Philosophical Logic | May 1983 | pp. 19-32
The Representation of Takeuti's Operator
Cooke, R.M., and van Lambalgen, M. Studia Logica | 1983 | No. 4 | pp. 407-415
Risk Assessment and Rational Decision Theory
Cooke, R.M. Dialectica | 1982 | pp. 329-35
A Paradox in Hempel's Criterion of Maximal
Specificity
Cooke, R.M. Philosophy of Science | 1981 | Vol. 48, No. 2 | pp. 327-328
Quantum Logic
Cooke, R.M. and Hilgevoord, J. Kennis en Methode, (in Dutch) | 1981 | 5, No. 4
A Trivialization of Nagel's Definition of Explanation for Statistical Laws
Cooke, R.M. Philosophy of Science | 1980 | 47 | pp. 644-645
The Algebra of Physical Magnitudes
Cooke, R.M. and Hilgevoord, J. Foundations of Physics | 1980 | Vol. 10, No. 5/6 | pp. 363-373
The Friedman-Putnam Realism
Cooke, R.M., Epistemological Letters | October 1979 | pp. 37-40
Correspondence, Equivalence and Completeness
Cooke, R.M. and Hilgevoord, J. Epistemological Letters | March 1979 | pp. 42-54
The Objective Content of Classical Particle Mechanics
Cooke, R.M. Filosofische Reeks, Universiteit van Amsterdam | 1977
Books, Chapters, and Reports
Uncertainty Analysis with High Dimensional Dependence Modeling
Kurowicka, D. and Cooke, R.M. New York: Wiley | 2006
Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods
Bedford, T.J. and Cooke, R.M. New York & Cambridge: Cambridge University Press | 2001 ISBN: 0-521-77320-2
Engineering Probabilistic Design and Maintenance for Flood Protection
Cooke, R.M., Mendel, M., Vrijling, H. (eds.) Dordrect, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers | 1997
Experts in Uncertainty; Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science.
Cooke R.M. New York & Oxford: Oxford University Press | 1991 ISBN 0-19-506465-8
Statistics in Science
Cooke, R. and Costantini, D. (eds.) Dordrect, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers | 1990
Belief in Science
Cooke, R.M. Assen, The Netherlands: van Gorcum | 1983 (in Dutch, English Summary available)
Short Articles, Issue Briefs, and Other Publications
Expert judgment study for placement ladder bowtie Kurowicka, D., Cooke, R.M. Goossens, L. and Ale, B.J.M. Safety and Reliability for Managing Risk | Guedes Soares & Zio (eds) | Taylor and Francis Group, London | ISBN 0-415-41620-56 p. 21-27
Safety assessment of ATC-wake singly runway departures Speijker, L.J.P., Vidal, A., Cooke R.M. Safety and Reliability for Managing Risk | Guedes Soares & Zio (eds) | Taylor and Francis Group, London | 2006 | ISBN 0-415-41620-56 p. 1851-1861
Quantification with imperfect data from different sources Kurowicka, D., Cooke, R.M., Goossens, L. and Ale, B.J.M. Safety and Reliability for Managing Risk | Guedes Soares & Zio (eds) | Taylor and Francis Group, London | 2006 | ISBN 0-415-41620-56 p. 897-904
Causal modeling in the aviation industry: an application for controlled flight into terrain Morales-Napoles, O., Hanea, A. Kurowicka, D., and Cooke, R.M. Safety and Reliability for Managing Risk | Guedes Soares & Zio (eds) | Taylor and Francis Group, London | 2006 | ISBN 0-415-41620-56 p. 1831-1838
Awards
Academic honors: Phi Beta Kappa, Highest Honors in Philosophy, Magna Cum Laude (Yale University).
Ouevre Award , Dutch Society for Risk Analysis and Reliability, 2005
Professional Activities
Coordinator, Masters of Science Program Risk and Environmental Modelling, Delft University of Technology (1999-).
Referee:
Physics Letters A
IMA Journal of Mathematics, Applied in Business and Industry.
Guest co-editor, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, special issue on Precursor Studies, 27 (1990).
Member, Editorial Board, Reliability Engineering and System Safety (1991- ).
Chairman, European Technical Committee on Uncertainty Modelling (1993-1998).
Guest editor, Reliability Engineering and System Safety; special issue, Design of Reliability Data Bases (1996); Workshop Uncertainty Modelling, pp. 24-25, March 1997.
Editorial Board, Risk Analysis, 1997.
Editorial Board, Reliability Engineering and System Safety.
Editor, European Safety and Reliability Association Newsletter (1996- 2000).
