Risk Analysis and Uncertainty
Discussions about climate change, natural disasters, and financial markets often center on risk management, highlighting the extreme losses that can occur. Research at RFF focuses on ways to quantify and reduce uncertainty, as well as detect, mitigate, and transfer the risk associated with disasters and climate change.
Publications
Journal Article — Jul 5, 2019
Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods
The increase of multidrug resistance and resistance to last-line antibiotics is a major global public health threat. This article uses the Classical Model of structured expert judgment to elicit projections with uncertainty bounds of resistance rates.
Working Paper — Jun 27, 2019
Market-Based Methods for Monetizing Uncertainty Reduction: A Case Study
A market-based method to quantify the societal value of Soil Moisture Active Passive mission information.
Working Paper — May 29, 2019
Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change
Human mobility is one response to climatic stress and shocks. In this synthesis article, we review the recent literature on the effects of climate change on human mobility within various disciplines.
Events
Workshop/Seminar — Dec 11, 2018
The Confidence Trap and Dysfunctional Dialogues about Climate Change: ETH Zurich
Workshop/Seminar — Nov 28, 2016
Disasters, Resilience, and the "Cure" for Catastrophe
At this RFF event, Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer of Risk Management Solutions and author of The Cure for Catastrophe: How We Can Stop Manufacturing Natural Disasters, explored the human causes of disaster and the new technologies and policy tools available to minimize their impact.
Webinar — Dec 17, 2015
Managing Risk: The Case of Wastewater Storage in Shale Gas Development
Experts discussed new research on the risks associated with storage pits versus tanks, and the choices states have made to regulate storage options.
News
Press Release — Aug 20, 2019
New Episode of Resources Radio on the Trump Administration's Proposed Changes to the Endangered Species Act, with Ya-Wei Li
In this podcast, Ya-Wei Li discusses the Trump administration's proposed changes to the Endangered Species Act.
Press Release — May 20, 2019
New Study, Blog on Predicting Future Sea Level Rise
RFF's Roger Cooke coauthored a new study and wrote a blog about uncertainty, sea level rise, and structured expert judgment.
Press Release — Feb 12, 2019