Beijing Vehicle Program to Reduce Pollution Also Affects Fertility

WASHINGTON—According to new research posted by Resources for the Future (RFF), vehicle restrictions in Beijing—meant to address the huge air problems in big cities—are also exacerbating fertility issues.

Authors Antung A. Liu from Indiana University, Senior Fellow Joshua Linn from RFF, Ping Qin of Renmin University, and Yang Jun from the Beijing Transportation Research Center note that over the last 50 years, the global fertility rate has halved. Worldwide, the average woman has fewer than 2.5 children today, the lowest rate in recorded history. And while fertility is of broad concern to the entire world, it has long been a major policy issue for developing countries, according to the study, Vehicle Ownership Restrictions and Fertility in Beijing.

Amidst the growing concern over declining fertility rates, starting in the late 2000s, China began relaxing its One-Child Program (OCP) and allowing an increasing number of couples to have two children. But many couples now elect to have fewer children than the policy permits due to the skyrocketing costs of raising children, including the cost of living space, education, and a clean environment.

Given the increasing attention to the OCP and the costs of declining fertility rates in China, this paper examines the effects on fertility of another policy: vehicle ownership restrictions in Beijing. Many large cities in East Asia face pervasive traffic congestion and air pollution. Beijing implemented a vehicle ownership restriction policy starting in January 2011, where only those who won a monthly lottery could purchase a new or used vehicle.

What had not been known until now, however, about the Beijing program is that the restriction of vehicle ownership appears to play a potentially important role in fertility. Leveraging a randomized survey, the researchers show that, unexpectedly, vehicle restrictions have reduced the number of births in the households of lottery entrants between 2011 and 2014 by 35 percent, implying a remarkable 6 percent reduction in births across the entire city.

According to the authors, the study’s “estimated effects of vehicle ownership on fertility are statistically significant, large, and of economic importance.” The fertility reductions caused by the vehicles policy “are far larger than those found in the prior literature examining government policies that are intended to directly influence fertility, such as cash transfers, tax benefits, and paid time off for parents.”

The researchers also note that the findings “imply that transportation options play a powerful and previously unexplored role in family planning decisions. Policymakers concerned about declining fertility should consider strong incentives to offset these effects, such as transportation services targeted at families with young children.”

Read the full study: Vehicle Ownership Restrictions and Fertility in Beijing.