Date
Sept. 1, 2000
Authors
Ian Parry and Wallace Oates
Publication
Reading time
Ian Parry
Wallace Oates
Policy Analysis in a Second-Best World
Wisdom/Madness of Crowds and Perils of Point Forecasts
This paper examines the reliability of expert forecasting methods, using simulated data to show that when samples from fat-tailed distributions are averaged, the results may not converge.
2026 Critical Minerals Research Lab Conference
Moving Development Rights Around to Hit Land Use Goals, with Nick Bratton
Nick Bratton discusses a market-based conservation solution called transfer of development rights and how the strategy can promote land conservation while facilitating residential and commercial development.
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