There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger “mega-catastrophes,” severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, we present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes—drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation—against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. We discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.
Press Release — Feb 18, 2020
New Episode of Resources Radio: "On the Job with Florida’s First Chief Resilience Officer, Julia Nesheiwat"
Julia Nesheiwat explains how she is approaching Florida’s complex climate challenges in her role as the state’s first-ever chief resilience officer.
Press Release — Feb 11, 2020
New Episode of Resources Radio: "Going Deeper on NEPA, with J.B. Ruhl"
J.B. Ruhl explains the nuances of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and predicts how proposed rule changes could affect its implementation.
Report — Jan 30, 2020
Florida Climate Outlook: Assessing Physical and Economic Impacts through 2040
How will Florida be impacted by climate change—not in 100 years, but in 20? The questions are addressed in the Florida Climate Outlook: a comprehensive, visual report on the near-term physical and economic impacts of climate change and climate policy in Florida.