EIA AEO2020 Alternative Cases Release: Modeling a Low-Carbon US Electric Sector

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its 2020 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), which provides updated projections of US energy markets. As an extension of the initial report, the EIA produced a set of complementary analyses that take a deeper dive into issues affecting the US electric power sector. These “Issues in Focus” side cases shed light on the potential effects of a range of clean energy policies on electricity markets—a critical starting point for decarbonization of the US economy.

On March 5, 2020, Resources for the Future (RFF) hosted a discussion on this special set of cases. EIA researchers kicked off the event with short presentations on the design and outcomes of the scenarios they modeled. A second panel of experts then contextualized the modeling results by reviewing broader trends in electricity markets and current policies. This RFF workshop helped to illuminate potential influences as the US electric power sector transitions over time.

Welcome and Opening Remarks

9:00 a.m.–9:15 a.m.
Richard G. Newell, President and CEO, Resources for the Future
Linda Capuano, Administrator, US Energy Information Administration

Panel I: Describing the Range of Uncertainty—Results from AEO2020 “Issues in Focus” Cases
Presentations from US Energy Information Administration

9:15 a.m.–10:15 a.m.
Moderator: Karen Palmer, Senior Fellow and Director, Future of Power Initiative, Resources for the Future

• Issue 1: Carbon-Free Generation Standard
  Christopher Namovicz, Team Leader, Renewables Team
• Issue 2: Lower Renewables Technologies Costs
  Manussawee Sukunta, Renewables Team
• Issue 3: Variability in End-Use PV Projections
  Erin Boedecker, Team Leader, Residential/Commercial Energy Demand Team
• Issue 4: Impacts of Alternative Carbon Fee Cases
  Thad Huetteman, Team Leader, Electricity Analysis Team

10:15 a.m.–10:30 a.m. Break

Panel II: Impact of Current Policies on Electricity Markets

10:30 a.m.–11:30 a.m.
Moderator: Richard G. Newell, President and CEO, Resources for the Future

• Benjamin Hobbs, Director of the Environment, Energy, Sustainability & Health Institute, Johns Hopkins University
• Jennifer Macedonia, Principal Consultant, JLM Environmental Consulting
• Robert McMurry, Director of Resource Planning, Duke Energy