RFF Carbon Pricing Dialogues | Lessons from COP30

With the 30th UN Conference of the Parties (COP) in the rear view mirror, this confidential, Chatham House Rule dialogue took stock of what happened.

We featured 4 panelists, and lined up 3 expert discussants for impromptu responses to the panelists’ remarks, which led to a rich discussion. The meeting opened with a condensed version of the major developments at COP 30. The sense was that though more needs to be accomplished, there is a shift from a focus on high-level goals to the really difficult implementation topics, so we shouldn’t be shocked they’re difficult and challenging. An open coalition for compliance markets was formed, and though the agreement is only 400 words, the broad geographic and economic diversity of the 18 signatories is very meaningful. An EU official noted some of the ins and outs of the definitive (i.e. payment) phase of the EU CBAM, starting 3 weeks after the dialogue, and he reminded us all that an ideal case is that the EU CBAM collects no money because all countries have equivalent carbon prices.

Our last panelist joined us from Brazil, and noted Brazil’s interest in carbon credits for nature based solutions, though there is a general sense that these are risky. Balancing the sequestration risks are that these are the most available and affordable carbon credits. They also have strong co-benefits, such as rural development and on water issues. We need to address the permanence challenge in a transparent way, and with pricing.