Brian Prest

Fellow; Director, Social Cost of Carbon Initiative

Brian Prest is an economist and Fellow at Resources for the Future specializing in climate change, oil and gas, and energy economics. Prest uses economic theory and econometric models to improve energy and environmental policies by assessing their impacts on markets and pollution outcomes. His recent work includes economic modeling of federal oil and gas leasing policies, including implementing carbon pricing into federal oil and gas royalties. He is also working to improve the scientific basis of the social cost of carbon by establish an empirical basis for determining discount rates and developing probabilistic Bayesian projections of country-level energy intensity. He also uses machine learning techniques to improve understanding of household electricity demand and time-varying pricing. His past work includes econometric modeling of the US oil and gas industry, evaluating the effects of coal subsidies on emissions, understanding the economic effects of rising temperatures, modeling the market dynamics of climate change policy under policy uncertainty. His work has appeared in peer-reviewed journals including the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Energy Economics, and The Energy Journal.

Prior to joining RFF, Prest earned his PhD at Duke University and previously worked in both the public and private sectors. At the Congressional Budget Office, he developed economic models of various energy sectors to analyze the effects of proposed legislation, including the 2009 Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill and related Clean Electricity Standards. At NERA Economic Consulting, he conducted electricity market modeling, project valuation, and discounted cash flow analysis of various infrastructure investments in the United States, Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia, with a focus on the power sector.

Education

PhD in environmental and resource economics, Duke University, 2018
BA in economics, Williams College, 2009

Topics

RCTs Against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects?

RFF researchers examine how well machine learning counterfactual prediction tools can estimate causal treatment effects.

Working Paper — Sep 9, 2021

The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates

This paper, coauthored by scholars at RFF and top research universities, examines the key methods and challenges involved in estimating a more accurate social cost of carbon.

Issue Brief — Sep 9, 2021

Methane Fees' Effects on Natural Gas Prices and Methane Leakage

This issue brief examines the economic effects of a range of methane fees, finding that incentivizing natural gas companies to reduce methane leaks could create benefits at relatively low cost.

Working Paper — Sep 29, 2021

RCTs Against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects?

RFF researchers examine how well machine learning counterfactual prediction tools can estimate causal treatment effects.

Issue Brief — Sep 9, 2021

Methane Fees' Effects on Natural Gas Prices and Methane Leakage

This issue brief examines the economic effects of a range of methane fees, finding that incentivizing natural gas companies to reduce methane leaks could create benefits at relatively low cost.

Working Paper — Sep 9, 2021

The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates

This paper, coauthored by scholars at RFF and top research universities, examines the key methods and challenges involved in estimating a more accurate social cost of carbon.

View More Publications

Media Highlight — Oct 5, 2021

Why Biden's Methane Fee Isn't a Gas Tax

An piece by a Bloomberg opinion columnist refers to RFF Fellow Brian Prest's work on methane fees and their costs to consumers.

Media Highlight — Sep 10, 2021

House Dems' Methane Fee Would Expand Emissions Reporting, Set Intensity Targets

A story in S&P Global about House Democrats' proposed methane fee features commentary and analysis by Fellow Brian Prest.

Media Highlight — Sep 9, 2021

Energy Source Newsletter: Case for a Fee

RFF Fellow Brian Prest's new study on methane fees is covered by the Financial Times.

View More News

Common Resources — Sep 29, 2021

Can We Use Machine Learning to Predict Energy Savings?

Randomized controlled trials can reveal the effect of a change in policy. But trials can be expensive and difficult. RFF research shows that a different approach, using machine learning, can link cause and effect without major investments in experiments.

Resources Magazine — May 20, 2021

Federal Climate Policy Toolkit: Oil and Gas

Burning fossil fuels increases the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and causes climate change. Federal policies that reduce the production and consumption of oil and gas—and that eliminate methane leaks—will help slow climate change.

Resources Magazine — Dec 21, 2020

Policy Options for Oil and Gas Leasing Reform on Federal Lands and Waters

The Biden administration has highlighted some possibilities for reforming oil and gas drilling—and thus reducing emissions—on federal lands. RFF Fellow Brian Prest draws from recent modeling results to consider carbon adders as a promising option.

View More Articles

Brian Prest

Education

Topics

Featured Content

RCTs Against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects?

The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates

Methane Fees' Effects on Natural Gas Prices and Methane Leakage

RCTs Against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects?

Methane Fees' Effects on Natural Gas Prices and Methane Leakage

The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates

Why Biden's Methane Fee Isn't a Gas Tax

House Dems' Methane Fee Would Expand Emissions Reporting, Set Intensity Targets

Energy Source Newsletter: Case for a Fee

Can We Use Machine Learning to Predict Energy Savings?

Federal Climate Policy Toolkit: Oil and Gas

Policy Options for Oil and Gas Leasing Reform on Federal Lands and Waters