Relaxing Energy Policies Coupled with Climate Change Will Significantly Undermine Efforts to Attain US Ozone Standards
Recently, the US administration has sought to relax energy policies without considering comprehensive effects on ambient ozone concentrations. Using an integrated modeling framework, Shen et al. show that relaxation of energy policies under a changing climate could undermine efforts to meet US ozone standards. The study demonstrates the synergistic effects of energy-policy relaxation with climate change on ozone standard compliance. If energy policies are relaxed and climate warming continues, the current decreasing trend in ground-level ozone may reverse.
Highlights
- Relaxing energy policies (EPs) will increase emissions of conventional air pollutants
- Climate warming will increase biogenic emissions and O3 production efficiency
- EP relaxation and climate change undermine the US's efforts to mitigate O3 pollution
- The effects of EP relaxation and climate change on O3 pollution are synergistic
Abstract
The United States (US) federal administration is relaxing energy policies (EPs), with yet uncharacterized effects on ambient air quality. The complex effects of EPs coupled with uncertainties associated with future climate have hindered past quantification. Here, we integrate model simulations to show that compared with a scenario of continued EPs and stationary climate, relaxation of EPs coupled with intense warming will increase the number of US counties in ozone nonattainment (NNA) by >75% in 2050. The NNA under the current standard of 0.070 parts per million (ppm) is projected to increase in 2050 from 27 to 49, while NNA under a tighter standard of 0.060 ppm will increase from 497 to 879. Our study demonstrates synergistic effects of EP relaxation with climate change on ozone standard compliance and indicates that the current decline in ambient ozone could be reversed by relaxing EPs in a changing climate.
Graphical Abstract
Authors
Huizhong Shen
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Yilin Chen
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Yufei Li
School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology
Armistead G. Russell
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Yongtao Hu
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Lucas R. F. Henneman
Harvard University, T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Mehmet Talât Odman
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Shuai Shao
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University, Syracuse
Haofei Yu
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida
Momei Qin
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Zhihong Chen
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology & The Department of Mechanical and Automation Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Abiola S. Lawal
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Gertrude K. Pavur
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Marilyn A. Brown
School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology
Charles T. Driscoll
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University
