Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded quantification of subjective uncertainty, deep uncertainty is frequently invoked to disable uncertainty quantification, with attendant problems in communicating and propagating uncertainty through chains of reasoning. These issues, together with science-based uncertainty quantification, are illustrated with recent applications to ice sheet dynamics. The issues of performance assessment and validation are addressed.
Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
This post draws on a recent RFF discussion paper by RFF Senior Fellow Roger Cooke, where he explores these topics in greater detail. Cooke is the C...
Press Release — May 20, 2019
New Study, Blog on Predicting Future Sea Level Rise
The Iceman Cometh: Ice Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise
Future sea level rise poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches.