Roger M. Cooke

Senior Fellow Emeritus

Roger Cooke is a senior fellow emeritus at RFF and an expert on expert judgment, uncertainty analysis, high dimensional dependence modeling, and value of information, especially for climate observing satellites. Notable recent publications address Validation of Expert Forecasters, Ice Sheet Contributions to Sea Level Rise, Value of Information for Climate Observing Systems, Probabilistic Reasoning about Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, Global Burden of Disease, Invasive Species, Fat-Tailed Distributions, Insurance for Fat-Tailed Risks, Market Methods for Valuing Uncertainty Reduction and Breastfeeding and IQ. Short videos are available online. He was a lead author on the chapter Risk and Uncertainty in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Graduating Phi Beta Kappa and Magna Cum Laude from Yale University, he received the Oeuvre Award for Risk Management (2005) and the Society for Risk Analysis Lifetime Distinguished Achievement Award (2011). He is recognized as one of the world's leading authorities on mathematical modeling of risk and uncertainty. His books on Expert Judgment, Risk Analysis, and Dependence Modeling are standards in their fields. His work figures prominently in two recent compendiums on Expert Judgment and Risk Analysis.

Prior to joining Resources for the Future in September 2005 as the first appointee to the Chauncey Starr Chair in Risk Analysis, Cooke was a professor of applied decision theory at the Department of Mathematics at Delft University of Technology in The Netherlands. Serving there for over 25 years he launched and led a Master’s Program in Risk and Environmental Modeling. He led the development of Bayes Nets software UNINET for high dimensional distributions under contract with The Dutch Ministry of Environment and later Shell and AIRBUS (free for academics). His current research focus is on policy-relevant applications of structured expert judgment and uncertainty analysis.


  • PhD in Mathematics and Philosophy, Yale University, 1974
  • BA in Mathematics and Philosophy, Yale University, 1968


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