A growing literature characterizes climate change damages by relating temperature shocks to GDP. But theory does not clearly prescribe estimable forms of this relationship, yielding discretion to researchers and generating potentially considerable model uncertainty. We therefore employ model cross validation to assess the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of 400 variants of prominent models, identify the set of superior models, and characterize both model and sampling uncertainty. Estimates of GDP impacts vary substantially across models, especially those assuming temperature effects on GDP growth, rather than levels. The best-performing models have non-linear temperature effects on GDP levels, and imply global GDP losses of 1-2% by 2100.
The GDP Temperature Relationship: Implications for Climate Change Damages
In the absence of clear theoretical guidance on specific estimable forms for the aggregate GDP-temperature relationship, we consider the implications of model uncertainty for market damages of climate change.Download
PG&E Power Outages Reduce Just a Portion of Wildfire Risk
Power outages imposed by PG&E will impact consumers, but won't necessarily mitigate wildfire risk.
Conferences & Panels — Oct 30, 2019
Clean Energy Standards Capitol Hill Briefing
Please join Resources for the Future on Wednesday, October 30 for a lunchtime discussion on the effects of and policy considerations for Clean Energy Standards.
Workshop/Seminar — Oct 30, 2019
2019 VALUABLES Consortium Annual Workshop
The VALUABLES Consortium's workshop is an annual gathering of economists, NASA experts, Earth scientists, decisionmakers, and thought leaders.