A growing literature characterizes climate change damages by relating temperature shocks to GDP. But theory does not clearly prescribe estimable forms of this relationship, yielding discretion to researchers and generating potentially considerable model uncertainty. We therefore employ model cross validation to assess the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of 400 variants of prominent models, identify the set of superior models, and characterize both model and sampling uncertainty. Estimates of GDP impacts vary substantially across models, especially those assuming temperature effects on GDP growth, rather than levels. The best-performing models have non-linear temperature effects on GDP levels, and imply global GDP losses of 1-2% by 2100.
The GDP Temperature Relationship: Implications for Climate Change Damages
In the absence of clear theoretical guidance on specific estimable forms for the aggregate GDP-temperature relationship, we consider the implications of model uncertainty for market damages of climate change.Download
Decarbonization in Vermont: An RFF Report for the Vermont State Legislature
A new RFF report examines different policies to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Vermont.
Colorado power companies bet big on net-zero emissions as state debates 100% renewable energy future
Resources Radio: Paying For Pollution, with Gilbert Metcalf of Tufts University
Host Daniel Raimi talks with Gilbert Metcalf, the John DiBiaggio Professor of Citizenship and Public Service, a Professor of Economics, and Graduat...