Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities conducted a joint uncertainty analysis of accident consequences for nuclear power plants. This study remains a benchmark for uncertainty analysis of large models involving high risks with high public visibility, and where substantial uncertainty exists. The study set standards with regard to structured expert judgment, performance assessment, dependence elicitation and modeling and uncertainty propagation of high dimensional distributions with complex dependence. The integratedassessment models for the economic effects of climate change also involve high risks and large uncertainties, and interest in conducting a proper uncertainty analysis is growing. This article reviews the EU-USNRC effort and extracts lessons learned, with a view toward informing a comparable effort for the economic effects of climate change.
Senior Fellow Emeritus
Workshop/Seminar — Apr 15, 2021
US Climate Ambition in 2030: Insights from Recent Modeling
A virtual meeting on what’s needed to put the United States on a path to net-zero emissions by midcentury
Resources Radio — Apr 6, 2021
Giving a Fair Shot to Energy Workers and Communities in Transition, with Wesley Look and Daniel Raimi
Wesley Look and Daniel Raimi review a series of reports about policies and programs that can ensure an equitable transition to a clean energy economy.
Common Resources — Apr 6, 2021
Putting the American Jobs Plan to Work: Examining the Implications and Challenges
RFF experts assess the Biden administration’s American Jobs Plan, which includes policy approaches to boost clean energy, protect the environment, and speed decarbonization efforts.