Impact of Solar Geoengineering on Temperature-Attributable Mortality
This working paper analyzes the capacity of solar geoengineering to reduce the risk of temperature-attributable mortality and compares it to the impact of equivalent cooling from CO2 emissions reductions.
Temperature-attributable mortality is a major risk of climate change. We analyze the capacity of solar geoengineering (SG) to reduce this risk and compare it to the impact of equivalent cooling from CO2 emissions reductions. We use the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model to simulate climate response to SG. Using empirical estimates of the historical relationship between temperature and mortality from Carleton et al. (2022), we project global and regional temperature-attributable mortality, find that SG reduces it globally, and provide evidence that this impact is larger than for equivalent cooling from emissions reductions. At a regional scale, SG moderates the risk in a majority of regions but not everywhere. Finally, we find that the benefits of reduced temperature-attributable mortality considerably outweigh the direct human mortality risk of sulfate aerosol injection. These findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions about socioeconomics, adaptation, and SG implementation.
On the Issues — Sep 8, 2023
On the Issues: US Mining, Methane Leaks, and More
A biweekly newsletter connecting global current events, pressing climate and energy policy news, and economics research from RFF scholars. This week: US mining, methane leaks, and more.
Resources Radio — Sep 5, 2023
New Social Science Perspectives on Solar Geoengineering, with Tyler Felgenhauer
Tyler Felgenhauer discusses new social science research on solar geoengineering, the risks and possible benefits of solar geoengineering, and how international cooperation could shape the deployment of the technology.
Working Paper — Sep 5, 2023
Strategy for Promoting Interdisciplinary Solar Geoengineering Research in India
This working paper analyzes results from a survey administered to researchers and government and civil society leaders about their views on solar geoengineering research.