The Energy Transition for Oil- and Gas Producing Tribal Nations: Assessing Options for Energy Development with the Southern Ute Indian Tribe

This paper presents the results of a multi-year collaborative research project between the authors, several other researchers, and the Southern Ute Indian Tribe, a natural gas-producing Tribe whose reservation sits near the ‘Four Corners’ region of southwestern Colorado. In this collaboration, we worked with the Tribe to inform their decision-making about future energy development by producing multiple scenarios depicting the potential for natural gas, wind, and solar development on their reservation. We begin by describing the efforts the Tribe has made over the last several decades to build substantial wealth from its natural gas production, along with its current strategies for developing new energy projects to sustain economic development and ensure tribal sovereignty. In our modeling work, we find that natural gas production on the reservation—absent the development of new shale formations—declines under all scenarios through 2050, as do associated Tribal revenues. We also find that solar—but not wind—development may be economically viable on parts of the reservation, although we do not attempt to calculate hypothetical Tribal revenues from future wind and solar projects. Along with these quantitative results, we believe that our collaborative research approach may serve as a model for other scholars who wish to work with Tribal nations within the United States as they seek to make decisions in a changing energy landscape.