Climate-driven Risks to the Climate Mitigation Potential of Forests
New research finds that forests can best be deployed in the fight against climate change with a proper understanding of the risks they face.
Abstract
Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.
Authors
William R. L. Anderegg
School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah
Anna T. Trugman
Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara
Grayson Badgley
School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah
Christa M. Anderson
World Wildlife Fund
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
Danny Cullenward
Stanford Law School
Christopher B. Field
Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University
Jeremy Freeman
CarbonPlan
Scott J. Goetz
School of Informatics and Computing, Northern Arizona University
Jeffrey A. Hicke
Department of Geography, University of Idaho
Deborah Huntzinger
School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University
Robert B. Jackson
Woods Institute for the Environment, Department of Earth System Science and Precourt Institute, Stanford University
John Nickerson
Climate Action Reserve
Stephen Pacala
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University
James T. Randerson
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine
